Two hockey overlays tonight

#1
Wednesday marks the second night of the National Hockey League season, as ten teams are set to play their season openers.

Finding any substantial overlays on Wednesday’s schedule is a difficult chore, however there are a few opportunities that offer some value.

Below you will find two plays from the Wednesday night slate of games in the NHL to consider at PointsBet.

For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.

For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.

If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.

MONTREAL CANADIENS at TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (Maple Leafs -1.5, -180 ML, OU 6)

A rematch of one of last year’s North Division postseason matchups between the Habs and Leafs is set to take place in Toronto on Wednesday, however neither squad will be playing with their optimal lineup.

The Montreal Canadiens will be without star goaltender Carey Price for an unknown amount of time, although Jake Allen proved himself to be more than capable when he got the nod last season.

As for the home team, Toronto will be without leading scorer Auston Matthews for the first few games of the ’21-’22 season as he recovers from wrist surgery.

The Maple Leafs still possess an immense amount of talent that has the capacity to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard in a hurry, but this may be a chance to take advantage of the circumstances presented and find value.

Based on my numbers, Wednesday’s game between the Canadiens and Maple Leafs will see less than six goals scored 54.1% of the time, which translates to odds of -118.

Bovada is currently offering odds of -110 (implied probability of 52.4%) on under six goals scored, representing a slight overlay.

NEW YORK RANGERS at WASHINGTON CAPITALS (Capitals -1.5, -110 ML, OU 6)

Last year, the Rangers and Capitals traded blows throughout the regular season, splitting their eight-game season series 4-4.

Not only did the two sides split the season series, but they were each 2-2 against one another when playing on the road (or playing at home depending on your viewpoint).
Capitals’ centerman Nicklas Backstrom is listed as week-to-week to begin the season with a lingering hip issue, and captain Alex Ovechkin is questionable to suit up in the season opener due to a lower body injury sustained late in the preseason.

The combination of established veterans and young stars in the making give the Rangers the look of a team that could make some noise in the Metropolitan Division this season.
Given the back-and-forth nature of the games these two sides tend to play, it is entirely within reason to side with whichever team has a better price offered.

When I first looked at this line, New York was listed at odds of +110 on the moneyline (implied probability of 47.6%) – a price that was more than playable.

Now, as we inch closer and closer to game-time, the line has shifted.

Both New York and Washington are listed at -110 on the moneyline (implied probability of 52.4%), causing one to wonder if it is worth shifting to the home side in the season opener.

Because of the swing in pricing, Washington at home gets the nod this evening.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
35,236
Messages
117,303
Members
1,358
Latest member
Thoactone