TOP 25 Roto picks for draft leagues

#1
Here is a list of the Top 25 Fantasy Baseball Players for those of you who draft fantasy teams, not for auctions.

This list is based not only on past production but also on future value. It will be roughly based on three-year averages. So for instance, while someone like Frank Thomas might have been a fantasy stud in the past, it’s no longer true. Thomas will not appear on this list, and for good reasons; his career is in obvious decline and has been for some time. Then again, you wouldn’t want to draft B.J. Upton in the first round because he’s 21 and has a lot of potential; he simply won’t get the opportunity to play every day next year and probably won’t even start the season on the major league roster, save for one hell of a spring training. Anyway, onto the list:

1) Alex Rodriguez, NYY, 3B- An absolute monster last year and the reason I won my league. Got him third in the draft and it was a steal. I can honestly say his production is second to none and when you have him on your team you realize it. The fact that he’s started stealing again makes his value immense and he should go first in every single league.

2) Albert Pujols, StL, 1B - At this point its basically 1 and 1a when it comes to Pay-rod and Pujols. His walk total has increased every year since his rookie year and he has had a +1.000 OPS save 2002 when it was .955. Expect another monstorous years and draft first if you feel it’s necessary; I put him 2nd because 3rd (base) isn’t as deep as 1st.

3) Johan Santana, Min, SP - Sub 3.00 era, sub 1.05 WHIP, 260 Ks and he should get more wins if Morneau can bounce back and Luis Castillo remains at his career averages. The best starting pitcher on the market.

4) Mark Teixeira, Tex, 1B - I think I got Teix in the 2nd or 3rd round last year and he should have been gone by the first. Played all 162 games last year and with Adrian Gonzalez out of the way and his new two year contract, the fact that he’ll be hitting at that park for two years might even bump him up to third in keeper leagues. The best bet to hit 50 HRs next year.

5) Vladimir Guerreo, LAA, OF - I may hate the guy but it’s hard to do what he does. He’ll go into huge slumps, but when he’s “hot” he’ll be the best player in fantasy.

6) Manny Ramirez, Bos, OF - Forget all the offseason shit, the guy is a machine. Almost a lock for 40+ HRs and 130+ RBI. Don’t buy into the notion that Boston is any worse this year either; like I said before, they’ll still score 900 runs and be the 2nd highest scoring offense in the majors.

7) Todd Helton, Col, 1B - .888 OPS pre All-Star break; 1.112 post All-Star break. In that park he still might be the best first baseman available and I still consider him a top 10 fantasy option. His walk total indicates that last season was not a slump and the power numbers should return. Don’t be afraid.

8) David Ortiz, Bos, 1B/DH - I’m not sure if he will lose his 1B eligibility (I don’t think so), but if he does that drops him down a bit, not much, but a bit. HRs, walks, and OPS have improved the past three years, and he’s only 30 years old so he’s entering his prime.

9) Bobby Abreu, Phi, OF - Another Helton-like situation; lack of production last year, except in this case it was reversed. Absolutely unbelivable before the break (.955 OPS) but no more than average after (.787). Power numbers should increase a bit and batting average will go back to normal. Not the 40/40 guy everyone predicted, but the best bet for 30/30.

10) Jason Bay, Pit, OF - Maybe the most improved player of last year and should be even better in ‘06. The beautiful .3/.4/.5 line (.306/.402/.559) for Bay should be close to the same next year. A younger version of Abreu, really, and should also challenge 30/30.

11) Miguel Cabrera, Fla, OF - The absence of Castillo + Pierre should hurt his RBI totals immesely; and the absence of Delgado his runs scored totals. I’m not one who believes much in “line-up protection,” but this will probably hurt Cabrera more than any other player in fantasy. Not to mention that his home/away splits were pretty drastic because he hits in that cavern of a park.

12) Michael Young, Tex, SS - The best SS after Tejada laid an egg last year. It also doesn’t help that Tejada is almost as much of a bitch as Manram is. His BB/K ratio has improved every year, as well as his power numbers and batting average. I don’t expect him to hit like .360 next year, but he’s a great bet for 25 HRs and a .330 avg.

13) David Wright, NYM, 3B - If Wille Randolph would have hit Wright 3rd or 4th last year and not Beltran/Floyd, the Mets probably would’ve made the playoffs. Hits for power, hits for average, and he runs. Oh, and he’s also 24. The best third base option in the NL, hands down.

14) Derrek Lee, ChC, 1B - So I don’t believe that he’ll even come close to touching his numbers from ‘05. He’ll be good, maybe even very good, but not great. It’s not a drastic, but it reminds me of Beltre’s year in ‘04. They’re called career years and people have them. Especially at 29 years old. Expect similar power numbers, but no way will he hit .335 again.

15) Pedro Martinez, NYM, SP - No longer the #1 pitching option in the majors, but a damn good one. He’ll have a better offense and a better bullpen, so expect more wins. He’s not getting younger and he doesn’t throw 95 anymore, but he’s smart enough to be a great pitcher. A solid fantasy ace.

16) Chris Carpenter, StL, SP - Probably the biggest surprise in ‘05; I know I didn’t see 241 innings, 213 Ks, a 2.83 ERA, and 1.06 WHIP. He’ll get you a ton of wins and strikeouts, but I think it’s wise to expect a bit of a drop off in ERA.

17) Chase Utley, Phi, 2B - This may be a little high for Utley, but he only had 540 ABs last year because Manuel wanted to platoon him and Polanco; that was retarded. Utley should be a good bet for 30+ HRs, 100+ RBIs, and a .280 avg. You might be able to throw in 20 SBs too, and for a 2B with that kind of power and speed, you won’t find anything else that’s better. Far and away the best option at second base (I’ll tell you right now Soriano isn’t showing up anywhere on this list).

18) Gary Sheffield, NYY, OF - He’s mashes and he complains.

19) Travis Hafner, Cle, DH/Util - If he had eligibility at first he might be a top ten. If he could play in more than 140 games a year he might be a top five. But as it stands he’s a DH and misses at least 20 games a year; and he’ll already be 29 next year. We might have seen the best of Hafner already, but I’m betting on the fact that he’s the scariest mother fucker in the batters box and that he’ll play a full season and jack 45 HRs.

20) Jake Peavy, SD, SP - San Diego sucks but Peavy doesn’t. Landing Peavy in the 2nd or 3rd round is perfect. I’m a firm believer in the theory that offense wins you championships in fantasy baseball, not pitching. Pitchers help you every five days, position players help you every day. But getting a pitcher of Peavy’s quality at this point in a draft would be perfect.

21) Miguel Tejada, Bal, SS - I have to put him somewhere because he is good. I just don’t think he’s as good as people think he is.

22) Ben Sheets, Mil, SP - The offense is better and if he doesn’t get any five-year old ear infections and then get all fucking dizzy, he should be fine. His injury absolutely killed me in one of my leagues last year because I was expecting a lot, and he was out for the last month. I’d expect a big bounce back year.

23) Rich Harden, Oak, SP - My obsession continues and he appears on this list if only because of that. And maybe because he’s probably the best pitcher in the AL, throws in the high 90s all the time (he was one of two pitchers to avg 98 MPH on their fastball last year, A.J. Burnett the other), and has a devastating splitter. The best “stuff” of any pitcher in the game today.

24) Roy Halladay, Tor, SP - No one else fit here and I couldn’t think of a better option. He was dominant last year until Shrek hit a ball going as fast as shotgun blast off his leg. Then he threw him out at first. Thats what the announcers call “presence of mind.”

25) Victor Martinez, Cle, C - Last year he had a terrible first half and an incredible 2nd half (.692 OPS pre-ASB, 1.026 post). I really don’t expect that much parity in his numbers next year because his walk totals were there, but his batting average was terrible (.236 first half). He’s the best, and maybe only good, option at C next year. Pudge and Piazza suck horrible ass and Posada has been declining for the past three years. If you can snatch Martinez in the 4th round, consider yourself lucky.

On the cusp: Andruw Jones, ATL, OF; Paulie Nerko, ChW, 1B; Carl Crawford, TB, OF; Chone Figgins, LAA, 2B/3B/OF; Jimmy Rollins, Phi, SS; Carlos Zambrano, ChC, SP; Jeff Kent, LAD, 1B/2B; Ryan Howard, Phi, 1B; Grady Sizemore, Cle, OF; Felix Hernandez, Sea, SP; Dontrelle Willis, Fla, SP; Carlos Beltran, NYM, OF; Carlos Lee, Mil, OF

Alfonso Soriano sucks so he’s not showing up anywhere except maybe the “Stay the Fuck Away from these Dudes” list. In addition to that, there will be a list of rookies or last years September call ups who could make a difference, a list on players injured in ‘05 who could bounce back to have good years, and a sleepers list. This should be a fun weekend and I’ll probably make another one of these tonight, so check back later for more information.

But I’ll tell you this right now; don’t expect to read these lists and win the league (whichever league you’re going to be in). I did maybe a months worth of research before I had the draft in my league last year and I was very lucky to not have any drastic injuries on my team. You must always have a contingency plan; if someone goes down, or now, gets caught for steroids, you’re fucked if you have no back up. Plan ahead, research who will have starting jobs, who might be called up, whatever. Find out if the manager doesn’t like someone on the team. I promise you that every bit of information you can acquire about the status of players will help you in winning whatever league your in (unless of course it’s a head-to-head league, that’s just luck).

There you have it. Remember, this is for those of you who draft and not for auctions.
 

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