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Take Northwestern Wildcats (-13.5) at Michigan State Spartans
Why will Northwestern cover the spread?
The Wildcats have college football’s best pass defense this season. Their 4.9 yards allowed per pass attempt is the best mark in the nation and they’ve managed a hefty 11 interceptions compared to just four passing touchdowns allowed. The Spartans have largely relied on their passing game to carry the offense, as they’ve averaged 250 passing yards per game and 74 rushing yards per contest.
Although a vast majority of Michigan State’s yardage has come through the air, they’ve struggled with turnovers and negative plays. Their eight interceptions thrown are tied for most in the Big Ten, while they’ve taken nine sacks in their four games. Northwestern has feasted on opposing QBs this season, posting 11 interceptions and 10 sacks through five games. We’re expecting the Northwestern defense to smother the Spartans, projecting Michigan State for just 11.8 points in this one.
Take Northwestern Wildcats (-13.5) at Michigan State Spartans
Why will Northwestern cover the spread?
The Wildcats have college football’s best pass defense this season. Their 4.9 yards allowed per pass attempt is the best mark in the nation and they’ve managed a hefty 11 interceptions compared to just four passing touchdowns allowed. The Spartans have largely relied on their passing game to carry the offense, as they’ve averaged 250 passing yards per game and 74 rushing yards per contest.
Although a vast majority of Michigan State’s yardage has come through the air, they’ve struggled with turnovers and negative plays. Their eight interceptions thrown are tied for most in the Big Ten, while they’ve taken nine sacks in their four games. Northwestern has feasted on opposing QBs this season, posting 11 interceptions and 10 sacks through five games. We’re expecting the Northwestern defense to smother the Spartans, projecting Michigan State for just 11.8 points in this one.
Vegas Insider Technical Trend Plays
CFB
Buffalo/Kent State Over 67 (Best Bet)
Toledo/Ball State Over 63.5 (Best Bet)
Virginia/Florida State Under 58 (Best Bet)
NC State/Syracuse Over 50
Indiana -11.5
Oklahoma State/Texas Tech Under 54.5
East Carolina +12
Ohio State -28
Ohio State/Illinois Under 72
Alabama -24
Pittsburgh +23
CFB
Buffalo/Kent State Over 67 (Best Bet)
Toledo/Ball State Over 63.5 (Best Bet)
Virginia/Florida State Under 58 (Best Bet)
NC State/Syracuse Over 50
Indiana -11.5
Oklahoma State/Texas Tech Under 54.5
East Carolina +12
Ohio State -28
Ohio State/Illinois Under 72
Alabama -24
Pittsburgh +23
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 13 college football picks, bets, nuggets
play
College football's best bets of Week 13 (1:22)
Nov 25, 2020
Chris FallicaSteve Coughlin
College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 13 of the season from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed or canceled because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
Stanford Steve (0-1 last week, 21-12 overall)
The Bear (3-2, 18-17)
The plays
No. 22 Auburn Tigers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-24.5, 62.5)
The Bear: When Alabama is a big favorite and supposed to handle Auburn, it typically does. Even without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, the Tide offense has been putting up points and yards at will. I'm still not sure what to make of Auburn. That was hardly an emphatic win over Tennessee last week, which can be added to the list of unimpressive wins over Kentucky, Arkansas and Ole Miss. Nick Saban won't be on the sideline, but I think this team is out for a bit of revenge from last year and will be just fine Saturday.
Pick: Alabama -24.5
No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5, 67.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels
NFL & CFB Best Bets
NFL: Eliminator picks for Week 12
NFL: Every team's record vs. the spread
CFB: Best bets for Week 13
CFB: AP Top 25 poll reaction
PickCenter: NFL | CFB
Chalk home | NFL home | CFB home
Stanford Steve: Remember when we backed the Brinks truck up to lay it on the money line when Notre Dame hosted Clemson a couple of weeks ago? Well, hopefully you still have some of that money because we need it this week for another Notre Dame game. As scary as the Tar Heels are with Sam Howell at QB (550 yards and six TDs last time out), I still think the game will be won at the line of scrimmage. We think the world of what Mack Brown is doing in his return to Chapel Hill, but we just think the Irish win the game.
Pick: Money line (-210) on Notre Dame (Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 32)
Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-24, 55)
Stanford Steve: The thought is the same as it was last week. You think Dabo Swinney is going to get Trevor Lawrence back and tell him to hand the ball off to Travis Etienne? I don't think so. Lawrence will come out and chuck the ball all over, and I think Pitt's offense actually brings a little bit to the table with Kenny Pickett playing well since his return, throwing for over 600 yards and the team scoring 88 points in the past two games. We'll take the over.
Pick: Over 55 (Clemson 45, Pitt 21)
Nebraska Cornhuskers No. 24 Iowa Hawkeyes (-13.5, 53)
EDITOR'S PICKS
College football Week 13 betting nuggets
The best college football player you don't know, a different kind of rivalry week and more for Week 13
The Bear: These games have been close each of the past two years, and I think the line is a little inflated because of how last week's games went, as Nebraska lost as a 16-point favorite and Iowa blew out Penn State in State College. As bad as it has been for Nebraska, the Huskers were in the game with Northwestern, just like Iowa was, and easily could have won that game. The 13.5 just seems like a few too many points in this spot.
Pick: Nebraska +13.5
UMass Minutemen at Liberty Flames (-37, 56.5)
Stanford Steve: Stay with me here. One team (UMass) averages 4.0 points a game and the other (Liberty) averages 37. Liberty is fresh off a loss to NC State, a game in which Flames QB Malik Willis threw three interceptions. He now has only four on the year. I think Walt Bell and his Minutemen can get to double-digits and Liberty does more than their part. The Flames beat UMass 63-21 last year. We'll take the over here too.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Liberty 45, UMass 17)
The Bear's money line parlay
$100 returns $37
UCF -2400
TCU -2000
Clemson -2000
Georgia -1600
Alabama -2400
Western Michigan -1300
Ohio -2000
Ohio State -4000
Texas A&M -560
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round robins and parlays
Utah State +195
Ball State +300
South Alabama +210
Bear Bytes
No. 22 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama
• Alabama has been greater than a 20-point favorite three times vs Auburn. The Tide won and covered all three, winning 52-21, 49-0 and 42-14.
No. 2 Notre Dame (-5, 67.5) at North Carolina
• The Irish have not lost a game as a favorite since 2017 at Stanford. That's a 29-game win streak as a favorite.
Pittsburgh at No. 3 Clemson (-24, 55)
• Pitt was a 21-point underdog when it upset Clemson in 2016. The Panthers are currently 24-point underdogs.
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5, 71) at Illinois Fighting Illini
• Illinois was a 30.5-point underdog last year when it upset No. 6 Wisconsin. The Illini are 28.5-point 'dogs to No. 3 Ohio State this week. Road favorites of at least 22 points are 2-9 ATS this season.
LSU Tigers at No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-14.5, 64)
• LSU has covered each of the past nine meetings with the Aggies.
Maryland Terrapins at No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers (-11.5, 62.5)
• Indiana is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country. Maryland has won outright as a double-digit underdog each of its past two games and will try to win a third straight game as a double-digit 'dog.
No. 13 Iowa State Cyclones at No. 17 Texas Longhorns (-1, 57)
• Iowa State has been in 13 games with a spread between -3.5 and +3.5 under Matt Campbell and is 3-10 in those 13 games with seven losses by four points or fewer. The Cyclones are 0-4 ATS against Texas under Campbell.
Colorado Buffaloes at No. 18 USC Trojans (-12, 64)
• Since 2017, USC is 3-11-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite. The Trojans have won all 15 games, with five of them coming by four points or fewer and seven decided by one possession.
Arizona Wildcats at UCLA Bruins (-10, 68.5)
• Under Chip Kelly, UCLA has been favored seven times. The Bruins have lost five of the seven outright and are 1-6 ATS, including a one-point loss to Arizona in 2018 as a 9.5-point favorite.
play
College football's best bets of Week 13 (1:22)
Nov 25, 2020
Chris FallicaSteve Coughlin
College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 13 of the season from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed or canceled because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
Stanford Steve (0-1 last week, 21-12 overall)
The Bear (3-2, 18-17)
The plays
No. 22 Auburn Tigers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-24.5, 62.5)
The Bear: When Alabama is a big favorite and supposed to handle Auburn, it typically does. Even without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, the Tide offense has been putting up points and yards at will. I'm still not sure what to make of Auburn. That was hardly an emphatic win over Tennessee last week, which can be added to the list of unimpressive wins over Kentucky, Arkansas and Ole Miss. Nick Saban won't be on the sideline, but I think this team is out for a bit of revenge from last year and will be just fine Saturday.
Pick: Alabama -24.5
No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5, 67.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels
NFL & CFB Best Bets
NFL: Eliminator picks for Week 12
NFL: Every team's record vs. the spread
CFB: Best bets for Week 13
CFB: AP Top 25 poll reaction
PickCenter: NFL | CFB
Chalk home | NFL home | CFB home
Stanford Steve: Remember when we backed the Brinks truck up to lay it on the money line when Notre Dame hosted Clemson a couple of weeks ago? Well, hopefully you still have some of that money because we need it this week for another Notre Dame game. As scary as the Tar Heels are with Sam Howell at QB (550 yards and six TDs last time out), I still think the game will be won at the line of scrimmage. We think the world of what Mack Brown is doing in his return to Chapel Hill, but we just think the Irish win the game.
Pick: Money line (-210) on Notre Dame (Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 32)
Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-24, 55)
Stanford Steve: The thought is the same as it was last week. You think Dabo Swinney is going to get Trevor Lawrence back and tell him to hand the ball off to Travis Etienne? I don't think so. Lawrence will come out and chuck the ball all over, and I think Pitt's offense actually brings a little bit to the table with Kenny Pickett playing well since his return, throwing for over 600 yards and the team scoring 88 points in the past two games. We'll take the over.
Pick: Over 55 (Clemson 45, Pitt 21)
Nebraska Cornhuskers No. 24 Iowa Hawkeyes (-13.5, 53)
EDITOR'S PICKS
College football Week 13 betting nuggets
The best college football player you don't know, a different kind of rivalry week and more for Week 13
The Bear: These games have been close each of the past two years, and I think the line is a little inflated because of how last week's games went, as Nebraska lost as a 16-point favorite and Iowa blew out Penn State in State College. As bad as it has been for Nebraska, the Huskers were in the game with Northwestern, just like Iowa was, and easily could have won that game. The 13.5 just seems like a few too many points in this spot.
Pick: Nebraska +13.5
UMass Minutemen at Liberty Flames (-37, 56.5)
Stanford Steve: Stay with me here. One team (UMass) averages 4.0 points a game and the other (Liberty) averages 37. Liberty is fresh off a loss to NC State, a game in which Flames QB Malik Willis threw three interceptions. He now has only four on the year. I think Walt Bell and his Minutemen can get to double-digits and Liberty does more than their part. The Flames beat UMass 63-21 last year. We'll take the over here too.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Liberty 45, UMass 17)
The Bear's money line parlay
$100 returns $37
UCF -2400
TCU -2000
Clemson -2000
Georgia -1600
Alabama -2400
Western Michigan -1300
Ohio -2000
Ohio State -4000
Texas A&M -560
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round robins and parlays
Utah State +195
Ball State +300
South Alabama +210
Bear Bytes
No. 22 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama
• Alabama has been greater than a 20-point favorite three times vs Auburn. The Tide won and covered all three, winning 52-21, 49-0 and 42-14.
No. 2 Notre Dame (-5, 67.5) at North Carolina
• The Irish have not lost a game as a favorite since 2017 at Stanford. That's a 29-game win streak as a favorite.
Pittsburgh at No. 3 Clemson (-24, 55)
• Pitt was a 21-point underdog when it upset Clemson in 2016. The Panthers are currently 24-point underdogs.
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5, 71) at Illinois Fighting Illini
• Illinois was a 30.5-point underdog last year when it upset No. 6 Wisconsin. The Illini are 28.5-point 'dogs to No. 3 Ohio State this week. Road favorites of at least 22 points are 2-9 ATS this season.
LSU Tigers at No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-14.5, 64)
• LSU has covered each of the past nine meetings with the Aggies.
Maryland Terrapins at No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers (-11.5, 62.5)
• Indiana is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country. Maryland has won outright as a double-digit underdog each of its past two games and will try to win a third straight game as a double-digit 'dog.
No. 13 Iowa State Cyclones at No. 17 Texas Longhorns (-1, 57)
• Iowa State has been in 13 games with a spread between -3.5 and +3.5 under Matt Campbell and is 3-10 in those 13 games with seven losses by four points or fewer. The Cyclones are 0-4 ATS against Texas under Campbell.
Colorado Buffaloes at No. 18 USC Trojans (-12, 64)
• Since 2017, USC is 3-11-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite. The Trojans have won all 15 games, with five of them coming by four points or fewer and seven decided by one possession.
Arizona Wildcats at UCLA Bruins (-10, 68.5)
• Under Chip Kelly, UCLA has been favored seven times. The Bruins have lost five of the seven outright and are 1-6 ATS, including a one-point loss to Arizona in 2018 as a 9.5-point favorite.
Kyle Akins
UNDER 51.5
TCU @ KANSAS | 11/28 | 8:00 PM EST10:22 AM
Kansas has scored more than 10 points in the first three quarters of just one of its six Big 12 games and has relied on garbage time for much of its scoring. On offense, TCU is not strong enough to get over this total itself and it is unlikely TCU will have a lead big enough to afford allowing garbage-time scoring. TCU’s last game was a 24-6 loss to West Virginia as a three-point road underdog. TCU is 0-12 OU (-14.92 ppg) since Nov. 19, 2011 as a favorite coming off a game as a road dog. I'm predicting 41 total points.
MISS -9.5
MISSST @ MISS | 11/28 | 4:00 PM EST10:20 AM
Ole Miss has shown it can take advantage of lesser SEC opponents the last two weeks. Mississippi State is one such team despite its competitive performance against Georgia last week. The Bulldogs' offense simply will not be able to do enough to keep them close. Mississippi State lost to Georgia last week 31-24 in a game where the Bulldogs easily covered as 24.5-point underdogs. Mississippi State is 0-10 ATS (-12.5 ppg) since Oct. 3, 2015 off a game as a dog where it covered. Prediction: Mississippi 45, Mississippi State 20
BAMA -24.5
AUBURN @ BAMA | 11/28 | 3:30 PM EST10:16 AM
Alabama is running on all cylinders right now and the Crimson Tide’s last three wins have all been by 31-plus points. Auburn is not significantly better than the Kentucky team that Alabama just beat by 60 points. Nick Saban’s absence for a single game has no impact in our forecast and we see Alabama continuing to pour it on. This is a revenge game for Alabama, having lost to Auburn 48-45 last season. Teams that are more than 23-point favorites playing a team they lost to last year are 85-51-6 ATS. Prediction: Alabama 48, Auburn 10
UNDER 51.5
TCU @ KANSAS | 11/28 | 8:00 PM EST10:22 AM
Kansas has scored more than 10 points in the first three quarters of just one of its six Big 12 games and has relied on garbage time for much of its scoring. On offense, TCU is not strong enough to get over this total itself and it is unlikely TCU will have a lead big enough to afford allowing garbage-time scoring. TCU’s last game was a 24-6 loss to West Virginia as a three-point road underdog. TCU is 0-12 OU (-14.92 ppg) since Nov. 19, 2011 as a favorite coming off a game as a road dog. I'm predicting 41 total points.
MISS -9.5
MISSST @ MISS | 11/28 | 4:00 PM EST10:20 AM
Ole Miss has shown it can take advantage of lesser SEC opponents the last two weeks. Mississippi State is one such team despite its competitive performance against Georgia last week. The Bulldogs' offense simply will not be able to do enough to keep them close. Mississippi State lost to Georgia last week 31-24 in a game where the Bulldogs easily covered as 24.5-point underdogs. Mississippi State is 0-10 ATS (-12.5 ppg) since Oct. 3, 2015 off a game as a dog where it covered. Prediction: Mississippi 45, Mississippi State 20
BAMA -24.5
AUBURN @ BAMA | 11/28 | 3:30 PM EST10:16 AM
Alabama is running on all cylinders right now and the Crimson Tide’s last three wins have all been by 31-plus points. Auburn is not significantly better than the Kentucky team that Alabama just beat by 60 points. Nick Saban’s absence for a single game has no impact in our forecast and we see Alabama continuing to pour it on. This is a revenge game for Alabama, having lost to Auburn 48-45 last season. Teams that are more than 23-point favorites playing a team they lost to last year are 85-51-6 ATS. Prediction: Alabama 48, Auburn 10