After looking at the top 25 players in fantasy baseball it’s time to look at the top 10 rookies I believe will and can legitimately make a difference this season. These rookies may have already played last year and some may still be in the minors, but because of a lack of depth at the position (say CF for the White Sox), these players will likely be the first call up to fill the hole and can produce for your fantasy team.
Projecting rookie numbers, of course, is hard, so this list will be based on whatever small production they may have in the majors and their collective minor league numbers (I will most likely not use college statistics). I will also not be using regular “criteria” for a rookie; that is, if someone played 46 games last year (and I believe the rookie cutoff for ROY is 45), I will probably still consider them a rookie. Whoever had less than a full season, but still within reasonable numbers (i.e. not Robinson Cano who had 522 ABs).
1) Felix Hernandez, SP, Sea - I recently just got back from visiting a friend of mine in Portland and on my last night there she asked me at dinner, “If you could be any baseball player right now, who would you be?” My initial answer after thinking about it for about 30 seconds or so was “Probably Felix Hernandez.” My reasoning for this was that he’s 19 years old, can throw 98 mph in the lower half of the strike zone, and has an absolutely nasty curveball. All of these things add up to complete success (assuming health). After I thought the question a little more, my answers varied from Frank Thomas to Rich Harden, but ultimately I think Hernandez would be the best answer. Last year Hernandez got called up and struck out 77 in 84 innings and didn’t give up an XBH or HR until his 5th game (against the White Sox attack of Brian Anderson and Jermaine Dye, ha). He’s a young pitcher, guarenteed a job, and is in a great pitchers park. Hernandez is not only the best “rookie,” he might already be one of the top pitchers in fantasy baseball.
2) Jeremy Hermida, OF, Fla - He’s really the only reason I’d still draft Miguel Cabrera as high as I would if Miggy was playing on a team that a) had real players and b) was in a stadium that wasn’t the modern equivalent of the Polo Grounds. Hermida showed great promise last year in AA with 29 2Bs/18 HRs/111 BBs(!)/89 Ks, good for a line of .293/.457/.518; a ripe .975 OPS. Of course, Hermida won’t draw 111 walks in ‘06, but with 4 HRs in only 41 ABs in the majors last year, it appears his power is developing and will translate to the majors nicely. He’s basically assured a job at this point which is why he ranks so high. If you need an outfielder in the middle-to-late rounds of a draft, you can’t do much better than Hermida.
3) Francisco Liriano, SP/RP, Min - The Twins got both Joe Nathan and Liriano for A.J. Pierzynski in maybe one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory. Liriano is essentially the second coming of his teammate Johan Santana, except he throws a lot harder. Liriano is consistently around 96-98 with his fastball and then will drop a 75-80 mph change-up, which is what Santana has succeeded on the past three years. Last year Liriano struck out major leaguers at a 12.55 k/9 rate, and despite his high (and unlucky) 5.70 ERA, he shows enormous promise; a mere seven walks 23.2 innings, with his WHIP registering at 1.09. The HR rate is a little high, but he shows no signs of consistently giving up HRs in the minors so I’m not too worried about that. If he reaches 200 innings next year he could get you 200 Ks. If only the Giants had kept this next guy, too…
4) Matt Cain, SP, SF - Cain came up to the Giants major league team last year in late August, making only seven starts for the team. Those seven starts were ultimately very impressive with his best outing coming against the Cubs; 9ip, 2h, 1er, 1bb, 8k. I understand the Cubs were a sad team last year, but regardless, to throw a 1 run CG against a major league team in your third start is pretty impressive. He might need to work on his control (73 BBs in 145+ IP in the minors last year), but he definitely has the arm to succeed in the majors.
5) Prince Fielder, 1B, Mil - Because his craft his hitting HRs, I’d like to see his patience develop a little more before we “crown” him the second coming of his father (or any other over-weight slugger, for that matter). He is big, and I have seen him hit the ball very hard. Don’t draft this kid as if he’s the eqivalent of a Carlos Delgado or Richie Sexson (although, eventually, he could be close to the latter); but he is good and should hit.
6) Andy Marte, 3B, Cle - The Indians are a god damn smart organization. Something tells me that they will get this kid into the line-up everyday. They will put Ben Broussard on the bench where he belongs, move Aaron Boone to first (assuming last year was a “fluke” and the semi-production he’s given over the course of his career is the norm), and Marte will play third all year. Marte showed great patience last year in the minors with a BB/K of 64/83, and nearly a 1/2 in his short stint with the Braves. He should get the starting job at third and could hit 20-25 HRs next year. (edit: after further review, Boone + Broussard should platoon on first and then the Indians can market them as B&B, get more money, sign a nasty SP and win the World Series.)
7) Matt Murton, OF, Chc - Every single Cubs fan in this city wants to make out with Matt Murton. Now that “Holly” is a distant memory, just like that 9th inning, game-tying HR he hit off John Smoltz in the beginning of the ‘04 season (funny how that works, Cubs fans.). Unlike the former ROY Hollandsworth, Murton can seemingly hit. His minor league numbers are a little sketchy, but he has success at most levels. I’d probably want to see a few more doubles, but he seems to be able to just “hit,” too. Murton produced at a .908 OPS last year, and I know that Bill James sees something right around there, but I’m not so sure that I do. Murton has power, decent patience and even runs a little. Don’t count on him for 30/100/30, but 20/80/15 is a decent bet.
8) Conor Jackson, 1B, Ari - I didn’t really know much about Jackson until I was looking through Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects, and when I looked at his numbers, my reaction was “Holy christ.” What stands out right away is his nearly 2/1 BB/K in AAA last year, and his nearly 1/1 in the majors. The power will develop, and he hits in a band box of a park. Assuming he gets the starting job he should mash.
9) Chris Young, OF, Ari - Now, Young doesn’t really belong here. He was great in AA last year and is 22 years old, but because of a wrist injury and CF currently blocked by any number of Diamondback candidates (Terrero, Green, Quentin?), Young probably won’t arrive with the major league team until 2007. But because he is probably the last great outfielder we’ll see that came up in the White Sox farm system, I felt I should say something. Young is a CF with three wonderful tools; power, speed, and patience. In AA last year Young had 24 HRs, 32 SBs (6 CS), and 70 BBs to 129 Ks. The strikeouts are admittedly a bit high, but his stolen base percentage is incredible and he has great power for a CF. If there was any one player I didn’t want to see traded in the White Sox offseason was this kid. He should be a star.
10) Brandon Wood, SS/3B, LAA - 100 extra base hits at three different minor league levels last year. Think about that for minute… (Wood was originally number two, but after consulting my dear friend Jon, I decided that he probably won’t be on the major league roster next year if McPherson + Cabrera are healthy and he’s only 20 years old, so I doubt he’ll have any major impact)
(You’ll notice there is no Delmon Young. The darling of all “scouts” drew a mere four walks in AAA last year. Don’t listen to whatever ESPN tells you; Young probably won’t be on the major league roster this year, unless they want another B.J. Upton issue. Not to mention that they’re OF is packed if Baldelli starts the year in CF)
Coming shortly, 10 Fantasy players to avoid
Projecting rookie numbers, of course, is hard, so this list will be based on whatever small production they may have in the majors and their collective minor league numbers (I will most likely not use college statistics). I will also not be using regular “criteria” for a rookie; that is, if someone played 46 games last year (and I believe the rookie cutoff for ROY is 45), I will probably still consider them a rookie. Whoever had less than a full season, but still within reasonable numbers (i.e. not Robinson Cano who had 522 ABs).
1) Felix Hernandez, SP, Sea - I recently just got back from visiting a friend of mine in Portland and on my last night there she asked me at dinner, “If you could be any baseball player right now, who would you be?” My initial answer after thinking about it for about 30 seconds or so was “Probably Felix Hernandez.” My reasoning for this was that he’s 19 years old, can throw 98 mph in the lower half of the strike zone, and has an absolutely nasty curveball. All of these things add up to complete success (assuming health). After I thought the question a little more, my answers varied from Frank Thomas to Rich Harden, but ultimately I think Hernandez would be the best answer. Last year Hernandez got called up and struck out 77 in 84 innings and didn’t give up an XBH or HR until his 5th game (against the White Sox attack of Brian Anderson and Jermaine Dye, ha). He’s a young pitcher, guarenteed a job, and is in a great pitchers park. Hernandez is not only the best “rookie,” he might already be one of the top pitchers in fantasy baseball.
2) Jeremy Hermida, OF, Fla - He’s really the only reason I’d still draft Miguel Cabrera as high as I would if Miggy was playing on a team that a) had real players and b) was in a stadium that wasn’t the modern equivalent of the Polo Grounds. Hermida showed great promise last year in AA with 29 2Bs/18 HRs/111 BBs(!)/89 Ks, good for a line of .293/.457/.518; a ripe .975 OPS. Of course, Hermida won’t draw 111 walks in ‘06, but with 4 HRs in only 41 ABs in the majors last year, it appears his power is developing and will translate to the majors nicely. He’s basically assured a job at this point which is why he ranks so high. If you need an outfielder in the middle-to-late rounds of a draft, you can’t do much better than Hermida.
3) Francisco Liriano, SP/RP, Min - The Twins got both Joe Nathan and Liriano for A.J. Pierzynski in maybe one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory. Liriano is essentially the second coming of his teammate Johan Santana, except he throws a lot harder. Liriano is consistently around 96-98 with his fastball and then will drop a 75-80 mph change-up, which is what Santana has succeeded on the past three years. Last year Liriano struck out major leaguers at a 12.55 k/9 rate, and despite his high (and unlucky) 5.70 ERA, he shows enormous promise; a mere seven walks 23.2 innings, with his WHIP registering at 1.09. The HR rate is a little high, but he shows no signs of consistently giving up HRs in the minors so I’m not too worried about that. If he reaches 200 innings next year he could get you 200 Ks. If only the Giants had kept this next guy, too…
4) Matt Cain, SP, SF - Cain came up to the Giants major league team last year in late August, making only seven starts for the team. Those seven starts were ultimately very impressive with his best outing coming against the Cubs; 9ip, 2h, 1er, 1bb, 8k. I understand the Cubs were a sad team last year, but regardless, to throw a 1 run CG against a major league team in your third start is pretty impressive. He might need to work on his control (73 BBs in 145+ IP in the minors last year), but he definitely has the arm to succeed in the majors.
5) Prince Fielder, 1B, Mil - Because his craft his hitting HRs, I’d like to see his patience develop a little more before we “crown” him the second coming of his father (or any other over-weight slugger, for that matter). He is big, and I have seen him hit the ball very hard. Don’t draft this kid as if he’s the eqivalent of a Carlos Delgado or Richie Sexson (although, eventually, he could be close to the latter); but he is good and should hit.
6) Andy Marte, 3B, Cle - The Indians are a god damn smart organization. Something tells me that they will get this kid into the line-up everyday. They will put Ben Broussard on the bench where he belongs, move Aaron Boone to first (assuming last year was a “fluke” and the semi-production he’s given over the course of his career is the norm), and Marte will play third all year. Marte showed great patience last year in the minors with a BB/K of 64/83, and nearly a 1/2 in his short stint with the Braves. He should get the starting job at third and could hit 20-25 HRs next year. (edit: after further review, Boone + Broussard should platoon on first and then the Indians can market them as B&B, get more money, sign a nasty SP and win the World Series.)
7) Matt Murton, OF, Chc - Every single Cubs fan in this city wants to make out with Matt Murton. Now that “Holly” is a distant memory, just like that 9th inning, game-tying HR he hit off John Smoltz in the beginning of the ‘04 season (funny how that works, Cubs fans.). Unlike the former ROY Hollandsworth, Murton can seemingly hit. His minor league numbers are a little sketchy, but he has success at most levels. I’d probably want to see a few more doubles, but he seems to be able to just “hit,” too. Murton produced at a .908 OPS last year, and I know that Bill James sees something right around there, but I’m not so sure that I do. Murton has power, decent patience and even runs a little. Don’t count on him for 30/100/30, but 20/80/15 is a decent bet.
8) Conor Jackson, 1B, Ari - I didn’t really know much about Jackson until I was looking through Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects, and when I looked at his numbers, my reaction was “Holy christ.” What stands out right away is his nearly 2/1 BB/K in AAA last year, and his nearly 1/1 in the majors. The power will develop, and he hits in a band box of a park. Assuming he gets the starting job he should mash.
9) Chris Young, OF, Ari - Now, Young doesn’t really belong here. He was great in AA last year and is 22 years old, but because of a wrist injury and CF currently blocked by any number of Diamondback candidates (Terrero, Green, Quentin?), Young probably won’t arrive with the major league team until 2007. But because he is probably the last great outfielder we’ll see that came up in the White Sox farm system, I felt I should say something. Young is a CF with three wonderful tools; power, speed, and patience. In AA last year Young had 24 HRs, 32 SBs (6 CS), and 70 BBs to 129 Ks. The strikeouts are admittedly a bit high, but his stolen base percentage is incredible and he has great power for a CF. If there was any one player I didn’t want to see traded in the White Sox offseason was this kid. He should be a star.
10) Brandon Wood, SS/3B, LAA - 100 extra base hits at three different minor league levels last year. Think about that for minute… (Wood was originally number two, but after consulting my dear friend Jon, I decided that he probably won’t be on the major league roster next year if McPherson + Cabrera are healthy and he’s only 20 years old, so I doubt he’ll have any major impact)
(You’ll notice there is no Delmon Young. The darling of all “scouts” drew a mere four walks in AAA last year. Don’t listen to whatever ESPN tells you; Young probably won’t be on the major league roster this year, unless they want another B.J. Upton issue. Not to mention that they’re OF is packed if Baldelli starts the year in CF)
Coming shortly, 10 Fantasy players to avoid