It's about that time again. With baseball's return just around the corner, we can't help but throw around predictions for the 2023 season. This year, more projections than usual are likely to center around home run totals -- after all, this time last year, did anyone have Aaron Judge hitting 62?
But maybe speculating isn’t your thing. Thanks to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, here we have a breakdown of each club’s projected home run leader for the 2023 season, plus a guy you should keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Before you go, though, take note -- most projections are conservative by nature and aren’t designed to predict outstanding seasons.
AL EAST
Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (39)
Guerrero had some issues hitting the ball in the air last season, but he still absolutely mashed, hitting 32 home runs after leading baseball with 48 in 2021.
Keep an eye on … Brandon Belt (14): Belt hit a career-high 29 home runs in 97 games in 2021 -- so who’s to say his elusive first 30-homer season couldn’t come in Toronto?
Orioles: Anthony Santander (29)
Santander had his first 30-homer season in 2022 -- he hit 33 -- and on another exceptionally young squad, he’s projected to lead the pack again in '23.
Keep an eye on … Kyle Stowers (14): Stowers led all Orioles Minor Leaguers with 27 home runs in 2021 and has a shot at a regular role in Baltimore in '23.
Rays: Brandon Lowe (27)
Nothing earth-shattering here -- Lowe hit 39 home runs in 2021, and should he return to full health, it’s safe to assume he can anchor the Rays’ light-hitting lineup in '23.
Keep an eye on … Jose Siri (17): Siri has shown some impressive pop in the Minors. Ahead of the Deadline deal that sent him to Tampa Bay, he hit nine homers in his last 16 Triple-A games.
Red Sox: Rafael Devers (32)
Devers has led the Red Sox in home runs for three consecutive seasons, and now that he’s signed until 2033, that’s not likely to change for a while.
Keep an eye on … Triston Casas (19): Boston is likely to lean on Casas at first base, which should give him plenty of time to harness the raw power that has him ranked MLB’s No. 23 prospect.
Yankees: Aaron Judge (44)
We’re not surprised. Neither are you. Steamer’s projections have the AL’s new home run king following his record-breaking 2022 season by leading the Majors with 44 homers in 2023.
Keep an eye on … Anthony Volpe (10): Baseball’s No. 5 overall prospect has developed serious pop in his time as a professional and even has an outside chance at becoming the Yankees’ Opening Day shortstop.
But maybe speculating isn’t your thing. Thanks to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, here we have a breakdown of each club’s projected home run leader for the 2023 season, plus a guy you should keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Before you go, though, take note -- most projections are conservative by nature and aren’t designed to predict outstanding seasons.
AL EAST
Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (39)
Guerrero had some issues hitting the ball in the air last season, but he still absolutely mashed, hitting 32 home runs after leading baseball with 48 in 2021.
Keep an eye on … Brandon Belt (14): Belt hit a career-high 29 home runs in 97 games in 2021 -- so who’s to say his elusive first 30-homer season couldn’t come in Toronto?
Orioles: Anthony Santander (29)
Santander had his first 30-homer season in 2022 -- he hit 33 -- and on another exceptionally young squad, he’s projected to lead the pack again in '23.
Keep an eye on … Kyle Stowers (14): Stowers led all Orioles Minor Leaguers with 27 home runs in 2021 and has a shot at a regular role in Baltimore in '23.
Rays: Brandon Lowe (27)
Nothing earth-shattering here -- Lowe hit 39 home runs in 2021, and should he return to full health, it’s safe to assume he can anchor the Rays’ light-hitting lineup in '23.
Keep an eye on … Jose Siri (17): Siri has shown some impressive pop in the Minors. Ahead of the Deadline deal that sent him to Tampa Bay, he hit nine homers in his last 16 Triple-A games.
Red Sox: Rafael Devers (32)
Devers has led the Red Sox in home runs for three consecutive seasons, and now that he’s signed until 2033, that’s not likely to change for a while.
Keep an eye on … Triston Casas (19): Boston is likely to lean on Casas at first base, which should give him plenty of time to harness the raw power that has him ranked MLB’s No. 23 prospect.
Yankees: Aaron Judge (44)
We’re not surprised. Neither are you. Steamer’s projections have the AL’s new home run king following his record-breaking 2022 season by leading the Majors with 44 homers in 2023.
Keep an eye on … Anthony Volpe (10): Baseball’s No. 5 overall prospect has developed serious pop in his time as a professional and even has an outside chance at becoming the Yankees’ Opening Day shortstop.