Tasty Total (7-6, $80): Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks over 47.5 (STN Sports)
$275 to win $250
This is by far my favorite total on the board. I trust both these offenses a great deal better than both these defenses. A few high-leverage failures at the end of games has overshadowed the fact that the Raiders’ offense has been above-average this season. As for their defense, well, there’s no getting around how much of a mess it’s been. Seattle was the same way on defense through the first month of the season before recently getting it together, but how long will that last? I’m not sure it’s going to be sustainable. The conditions are always a fear of betting an over in Seattle, but these offenses have enough weapons to hopefully be able to deal with a light drizzle.
Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (6-6, -$150): Carolina Panthers +7 & Tennessee Titans +8.5 at -120 (William Hill/Caesars)
$240 to win $200
The plan was to take the Panthers +8 at home against the Broncos, but naturally, the line moved out of standard through-the-3-and-6 teaser territory. Carolina still might be the best choice to boost up to +7, which is safe at Caesars for now until it moves to a pick’em or perhaps a slight favorite. It looks like that’s on track to happen, and it’s never smart to tease through zero. The Titans are a more straight-forward choice, going through both key numbers in their home against the Bengals. Maybe they don’t win, but they also probably don’t lose by more than a touchdown.
Moneyline Parlay (3-8, -$546.50): Atlanta Falcons & Japan over Costa Rica in the World Cup at +306 (Circa Sports)
$150 to win $459
I promised to cover the World Cup in Sunday Sweats as long as it was running, so here we are. Truth be told, I didn’t anticipate using soccer as an inter-sport parlay but there’s not a lot of NFL moneylines catching my eye. Atlanta, +185 at Washington, is the exception. Despite the Commanders’ recent win streak, these teams are about even and anything above +150 is playable. Japan meanwhile could be even chalkier than -230 given how outmanned Costa Rica looks. This might not be another 7-0 pasting like Costa Rica endured against Spain, but Japan is closer to the latter to the former. The Samurai Blue should be in line for a comfortable victory.
Player Prop (10-13, -$546): DeVonta Smith under 58.5 receiving yards at -114 (Boyd Sports)
$228 to win $200
The Packers are weakened up front on defense, but still have an above-average secondary. They’re second in the league against No. 2 receivers by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings to make it even more unlikely that the former Heisman Trophy winner runs wild on them. The Eagles’ offense has shown some cracks the last couple weeks, and while they’ll probably get it together down the stretch of the season into the playoffs, some adjustment for their recent performance is necessary at the moment. Smith’s receiving yards total is too high based on a couple big games he had earlier in the year.
Future Finding (1-2, $400): Chicago Blackhawks to have lowest regular season point total at 6-to-1 (William Hill/Caesars)
$200 to win $1,200
No NFL or World Cup futures stood out, so it’s off to a sport with a market that’s been too slow to adjust. Chicago has arguably been the worst team in the NHL, and these odds haven’t caught up. It also could only get uglier, as the Blackhawks have a couple trade-able assets at the deadline and may look to tank to increase their chances at a top pick in next year’s loaded NHL Draft. Arizona was a runaway favorite to have the fewest points coming into the season and still remains at the top of these odds, but hasn’t been quite as bad expected. That’s largely because the emergence of goalie Karel Vejmelka, and there’s no such savior in sight for the Blackhawks.
Non-football Play (8-5, $630): Morocco +.5 vs. Belgium in the World Cup at -116 (William Hill/Caesars)
$174 to win $150
Belgium may have big names, but it hasn’t been impressive lately including in its opening game of the World Cup. Despite a 1-0 loss, Canada far outperformed Belgium by expected goals. Morocco’s game with Croatia was more neutral but that’s better than the market implied the former would do. Morocco’s a young, smart team that the market may not have fully caught up on. In other words, it’s the exact opposite of an overvalued Belgium side. Morocco may win outright but I’ll play it conservatively and ensure a draw locks up a victory too.
Sunday Sweats year to date: 35-39, -$132.50
Weekend betting column year to date: 103-118-1, $3,461.08
Weekend betting column all-time: 445-449-5, $10,306.81
from Las Vegas Sun
$275 to win $250
This is by far my favorite total on the board. I trust both these offenses a great deal better than both these defenses. A few high-leverage failures at the end of games has overshadowed the fact that the Raiders’ offense has been above-average this season. As for their defense, well, there’s no getting around how much of a mess it’s been. Seattle was the same way on defense through the first month of the season before recently getting it together, but how long will that last? I’m not sure it’s going to be sustainable. The conditions are always a fear of betting an over in Seattle, but these offenses have enough weapons to hopefully be able to deal with a light drizzle.
Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (6-6, -$150): Carolina Panthers +7 & Tennessee Titans +8.5 at -120 (William Hill/Caesars)
$240 to win $200
The plan was to take the Panthers +8 at home against the Broncos, but naturally, the line moved out of standard through-the-3-and-6 teaser territory. Carolina still might be the best choice to boost up to +7, which is safe at Caesars for now until it moves to a pick’em or perhaps a slight favorite. It looks like that’s on track to happen, and it’s never smart to tease through zero. The Titans are a more straight-forward choice, going through both key numbers in their home against the Bengals. Maybe they don’t win, but they also probably don’t lose by more than a touchdown.
Moneyline Parlay (3-8, -$546.50): Atlanta Falcons & Japan over Costa Rica in the World Cup at +306 (Circa Sports)
$150 to win $459
I promised to cover the World Cup in Sunday Sweats as long as it was running, so here we are. Truth be told, I didn’t anticipate using soccer as an inter-sport parlay but there’s not a lot of NFL moneylines catching my eye. Atlanta, +185 at Washington, is the exception. Despite the Commanders’ recent win streak, these teams are about even and anything above +150 is playable. Japan meanwhile could be even chalkier than -230 given how outmanned Costa Rica looks. This might not be another 7-0 pasting like Costa Rica endured against Spain, but Japan is closer to the latter to the former. The Samurai Blue should be in line for a comfortable victory.
Player Prop (10-13, -$546): DeVonta Smith under 58.5 receiving yards at -114 (Boyd Sports)
$228 to win $200
The Packers are weakened up front on defense, but still have an above-average secondary. They’re second in the league against No. 2 receivers by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings to make it even more unlikely that the former Heisman Trophy winner runs wild on them. The Eagles’ offense has shown some cracks the last couple weeks, and while they’ll probably get it together down the stretch of the season into the playoffs, some adjustment for their recent performance is necessary at the moment. Smith’s receiving yards total is too high based on a couple big games he had earlier in the year.
Future Finding (1-2, $400): Chicago Blackhawks to have lowest regular season point total at 6-to-1 (William Hill/Caesars)
$200 to win $1,200
No NFL or World Cup futures stood out, so it’s off to a sport with a market that’s been too slow to adjust. Chicago has arguably been the worst team in the NHL, and these odds haven’t caught up. It also could only get uglier, as the Blackhawks have a couple trade-able assets at the deadline and may look to tank to increase their chances at a top pick in next year’s loaded NHL Draft. Arizona was a runaway favorite to have the fewest points coming into the season and still remains at the top of these odds, but hasn’t been quite as bad expected. That’s largely because the emergence of goalie Karel Vejmelka, and there’s no such savior in sight for the Blackhawks.
Non-football Play (8-5, $630): Morocco +.5 vs. Belgium in the World Cup at -116 (William Hill/Caesars)
$174 to win $150
Belgium may have big names, but it hasn’t been impressive lately including in its opening game of the World Cup. Despite a 1-0 loss, Canada far outperformed Belgium by expected goals. Morocco’s game with Croatia was more neutral but that’s better than the market implied the former would do. Morocco’s a young, smart team that the market may not have fully caught up on. In other words, it’s the exact opposite of an overvalued Belgium side. Morocco may win outright but I’ll play it conservatively and ensure a draw locks up a victory too.
Sunday Sweats year to date: 35-39, -$132.50
Weekend betting column year to date: 103-118-1, $3,461.08
Weekend betting column all-time: 445-449-5, $10,306.81
from Las Vegas Sun