Sunday Services

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Well-known member
#45
Marco D"Angelo
4% (272) TAMPA BAY +3.5


Bad scheduling spot for Kansas City as the Raider Game was a big Game as it was SNF and a revenge game for Kansas City’s only loss of the season. KC now has to travel to Tampa for a Non-Conference Road game (least important on schedule). Tampa on the other hand comes in here on a short week off a loss on MNF. Once again Brady struggled in a Prime Time night game this year as his INT’s were the difference in the game. Last Week I was on the Rams because we had two good teams with very good defenses. The Rams had the better defense and was getting points an angle I like to ride with. For this game we have the same situation two good teams but one has the better defense and is getting points and this week that’s Tampa. Tampa has the #3 defense in YPP allowing just 5.2 yards. Last Week The Rams were able to put pressure on Brady, but this KC defense doesn’t bring that kind of pressure on opposing QB’s like the Rams do. Note Arians is 13-3 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less in his coaching career. We also find that over the L3 Seasons Brady has been a Underdog 5 times he’s 4-1 SU & ATS. TAMPA BAY 31-28TAKE TAMPA as my 4% NFL UPSET SHOCKER.
 

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Well-known member
#47
Ralph Michaels (CAL SPORTS)


Game: (263) Los Angeles Chargers at (264) Buffalo Bills
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Buffalo Bills -4.5 (-110)

#264 5% Buffalo -4.5 LA Chargers 1 PM ET
Impressed with Herbert as he’s putting up points on the scoreboard but winning is s a different matter. Herbert has started the L9 games and they are 2-7 with the wins both at home vs Jacksonville and the NY Jets.
Game: (251) Las Vegas Raiders at (252) Atlanta Falcons
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Teaser Atlanta Falcons +9.0 (-125)/ Rams -1/2

4% TWO TEAM 6-pt Teaser
Atlanta +9/ LA Rams -½ pt
Game: (269) San Francisco 49ers at (270) Los Angeles Rams
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 4:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 44.5 (-110)

##269/#270 3% UNDER 44.5 SF/ LA Rams 4:05 PM
 

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Well-known member
#49
5-STAR Tennessee and Indianapolis Under 52 This is a quick rematch from when these teams played just two weeks ago in a game where Indianapolis dominated the second half. The Colts also dominated the second half last game against the Packers in a comeback win. We expect this to be a game where Indianapolis is able to play with a lead and control the clock in this game.
Tennessee picked up a huge overtime win over Baltimore last week, 30-24. They got a couple of big performances from the skill positions. Derrick Henry ran for 133 yards while Corey Davis had 133 receiving yards. Teams that had both a 110+ yard rusher and receiver last game are 118-163-9 OU.

Tennessees pass defense played significantly better in that game than any recent game, holding Baltimore to just 177 passing yards. Teams that allowed at least 50 fewer passing yards last game than any of their past eight games (dating back to last season) are 193-237-12 OU.

Indianapolis defeated Green Bay last week, 34-31 in overtime. The Colts defense really found something in the second half. They gave up 28 points in the first half but just three in the second half in a huge comeback win. Teams that allowed at least 21 points more in the first half than the second half of their last game are 134-191-7 OU.

Indianapolis came back from a 14-point deficit in that game, not all that dissimilar to their win over Tennessee where they overcame a pair of 7-point deficits. Teams coming off back-to-back wins where they trailed by 7+ points last game and also trailed two games ago are 187-236-7 OU (p:W and po:BL>=7 and pp:W and ppo:BL>0).

Against Green Bay, the Colts had to air things out after they got behind. They threw for 280 yards in a game they picked up 23 first downs. The Colts are 0-13 OU (-11.81 ppg) since Nov 23, 2014 at home coming off a game where they threw for at least 245 yards and gained no more than 25 first downs (team=Colts and H and p:passing yards>=245 and p:first downs<=25 and date>=20141123).

Philip Rivers threw for all three of the Colts touchdowns in that game but such a big scoring day has been had for Rivers to duplicate. Teams are 0-14-1 OU (-8.77 ppg) since Nov 22, 2010 at home when the total is at least 44 coming off a game where Philip Rivers threw for at least three touchdowns (H and total >44 and Philip Rivers:p:passing touchdowns>=3 and date>=20101122).

The rest of Indianapolis scoring came on field goals as the Colts attempted five and made four of them. Teams which attempted at least five field goals last game are 133-172-5 OU.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: INDIANAPOLIS 23, Tennessee 17
 

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Well-known member
#52
More Betting Nuggets

Arizona is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in games starting at 1 p.m. ET in the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray era.

When quarterback Ryan Tannehill starts regular-season games for Tennessee, overs are 17-3, including 8-2 this season.

Las Vegas has covered six of its past seven road games (4-1 ATS this season).

The over is 8-2 in Buffalo games this season, tied for the highest mark in the league.

All five Minnesota home games have gone over the total this season.

Miami is 16-6 ATS since its Week 5 bye last season, the best mark in the league.

The Giants have covered eight straight road games, including all five under coach Joe Judge this season.

Mayfield is 1-5 ATS in his career as a road favorite (2-4 straight up).

San Francisco is coming off a bye, while Los Angeles is coming off a Monday night game. Since 2017, teams coming off a bye are 2-9 ATS against teams coming off a Monday game.

Since the start of last season, New Orleans is 6-0 ATS and straight up without Brees -- Teddy Bridgewater and Hill were the fill-ins -- despite being an underdog in four of the six games.

Brady is 10-1 ATS and 9-2 outright as a home underdog in his career.

Green Bay is 5-0 ATS after a loss under coach Matt LaFleur.

Wentz is 3-7 ATS as a starter this season, tied with Deshaun Watson for the worst ATS record this season among quarterbacks with 10-plus starts.

Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS this season, the best mark in the NFL.
 

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Well-known member
#53
Marco
4% (261) TENNESSEE +3

Both teams are coming off huge OT Wins last week. But if we dig deeper Indy shouldn’t have won as Green Bay gift wrapped that win by turning the ball over 4 times. This is also the second meeting of the season between these two as just a couple weeks ago Indy went to Tennessee and put a beating on the Titans. In that first meeting Tannehill had his worst game of the year. I like taking the road dog in the second meeting if they lost the first meeting at home. Indy after already beating Tennessee 2 weeks ago and then winning in OT over Green Bay last week, I have to feel that they are feeling all Fat n Sassy and Tennessee is a very live Revenging Road Dog. These two are tied at 7-3 but for Tennessee this game means more as having already lost to Indy if they lose today they would basically be two back instead of one because of tie breaker. TENNESSEE 24-20. TAKE TENNESSEE as my 4% AFC SOUTH SHOCKER.
 

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Well-known member
#54
Marco
4% (260) MINNESOTA -3


Will anyone want Minnesota this week after losing to the lowly Cowboys last week especially after how bad Dallas came back and played on Thanksgiving. Last week was the perfect storm as Dallas had 2 weeks to prepare and was getting Andy Dalton back. The Cowboys also were catching Minnesota off a short week following a very physical game with Chicago on MNF the week before. Teddy Bridgewater is set to return this week after missing last weeks game with an injury. Carolina won with the backup QB which was no surprise as that was The Injured Player Theory...But now we have the second part of that as if the injured team wins we look to fade them the following game especially if the starter returns as now you have the reverse effect of the Injured Player Theory. The Basis of the Injured Player Theory is that the injured team is getting an inflated line based on public perception while the rest of the team plays at a higher intensity level to compensate for the loss of the injured player but in Game 2...The team doesn’t play with the same intensity because they won and when the star is returning the line value you enjoyed last week is gone because everyone over reacts the other way with his return. Minnesota will move the ball against this Carolina defense and I just don’t see Carolina trading points the entire game. The one thing I will say is Bridgewater will be pumped up going back to play in Minnesota but he doesn’t play defense and it’s the Carolina defense that will get them beat here. One last Note: Coach Zimmer is 15-4 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MINNESOTA. MINNESOTA 31-20 as my 4% NFL GAME OF THE WEEK.
 

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Well-known member
#55
Marco
5% (252) ATLANTA +3

Everyone saw The Raiders look as good as a team could look in defeat last week while they saw Atlanta get trounced by the Saints and a Back up QB. No one will want Atlanta. That was a big game for the Raiders and although it was a good looking loss it was still a loss. And I feel this is a dangerous spot for them. The Knee jerk reaction will be to take The Raiders to bounce back but honestly this is a Trap Game situation as that was a statement game for the Raiders and the way they lost at the end I feel will have a hangover affect this week. The Raiders also have to travel cross country to play a NFC team which I say over and over the least important game on a teams schedule are non conference road games. Atlanta’s defense ranks dead last in YPP allowed at 6.6 but The Raiders aren’t that much better as they are 24th allowing 6.1 YPP. I just can’t trust a team in a bad scheduling spot off a gut wrenching loss with a bad defense to lay points on the road. ATLANTA 31-27 as my 5% NFL HIGH ROLLER

 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#56
Dave Price NFL Play:


Atlanta Falcons +3


The Key: The Las Vegas Raiders are in a tough situation today. They must travel out East for an early start time here and try and shake off their 31-35 loss to the Chiefs in which they allowed the winning touchdown in the final minute. The Chiefs are their biggest rivals, so they could easily suffer a hangover here from that defeat. And the price is right to back a Falcons team coming off a bad loss to the Saints. The Falcons have won 3 of their previous 4 with their only loss coming by a single point. They will keep going hard under head coach Raheem Morris as they have been since he took over. And they will have Calvin Ridley healthy and could have Julio Jones back after he got hurt against the Saints. The Raiders have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL so Matt Ryan won’t be getting sacked 8 times like he did against the Saints. He’ll have time to pick apart a soft Raiders defense that yields 27.6 PPG this year. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off 4 or more consecutive ATS wins. Take Atlanta.
 

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Well-known member
#59
Elite Sports Picks

Kansas City/Tampa Bay OVER 56 (NFL)




Top Rank Sports Picks

D★ Kansas City/Tampa Bay OVER 56 (NFL)

C★ N.Y. Giants -6 over Cincinnati (NFL)

C★ Tennessee +3 over Indianapolis (NFL)
 

Show*Time

Well-known member
#60
National Sports Service

5* L.A. Chargers/Buffalo OVER 52.5 (NFL)

3* San Francisco +6.5 over L.A. Rams (NFL)

3* Kansas City -3.5 over Tampa Bay (NFL)
 

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