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Buster Sport
Game: (271) Kansas City Chiefs at (272) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 4:25 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 53.0 (-110)
IMPORTANT NOTICE 6pm EST Tuesday
AFTER RELEASING THIS PLAY EARLY THIS MORNING WE NOW SEE WITH THE $2 BUY THIS TOTAL BEING PUSHED TO 55 ½ AND EVEN 56 ALL WITHIN A 8 HR PERIOD. WITH MORE PEOPLE BUYING THIS RELEASE WE MIGHT SEE IT HIT 56 ½.
JUST SOME PARAMETERS 56 STILL GD AT 4%
56 ½ IS 3% 57 IS A 2%.
Our selection is on the Kansas City/ Tampa Bay over 53
We have not been impressed by either of these defenses and now that the LA Rams showed the world that you actually can throw against this Bucs D we will look for Kansas City and QB Mahomes to have a big game against a defense we have been calling suspect all year. Even though the stats might look good. KC has been unstoppable on offense. They have put up 43, 35, 33 and 35 points respectively in their last 4 games and we see no reason that they wont be over 30 again in this game. As for Brady and company they are going to get their points as well against a Kansas City D that has given up 31 points in each of their last 2 games. We like Brady to bounce back in this spot from a dismal second half performance in his last game when he threw 2 second half interceptions. We actually had this total at 55 and with the line at 53 at the time of this writing, it is a nice break from the oddsmaker. The weather should be perfect for the weekend in Tampa and that just helps send this one flying OVER the posted total.
So lets get the job done with the Kansas City/ Tampa bay OVER 53.
Marc Lawrence
NFL - 4* Game 252 - Falcons (+3) - NFL GOW
Edges - Falcons: 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS versus AFC West opponents, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog; and head coach Raheem Morris 14-9-1 ATS against opponents coming off a loss … Raiders: 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite, including 1-9 SUATS versus losing opponents; and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS away off a loss when facing NFC South opponents … We cement the call with this from our NFL Perfect System Club as it tells us to: PLAY AGAINST any sub .850 NFL single-digit road favorite off one loss-exact that was preceded by a 3-0 SUATS win streak if they are facing a foe coming off a loss of 14 or more points if the foe won 8 or fewer games last season. That’s because these deflated road favorites are 0-15-1 ATS in this role since 1980. In addition our powerful database note that NFL home dogs who started the season 0-4 are 10-0 ATS since 1990 as home dogs from Game Five out when coming off a SU and double digit ATS loss in which they scored fewer than 10 points when facing an opponent that surrendered 20 or more points in its previous game. With that, recommend a strong 4* play on Atlanta. Thank you and good luck as always.
NFL - 3* Game 269 - Forty Niners (+7)
Edges - 49ers: Head coach Kyle Shanahan 15-7 ATS away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points, including 6-0 ATS the last six; and Shanahan 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS from Game Eleven out away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points … Rams: Head coach Sean McVay 8-15-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins, including 0-5 SUATS the last five, and McVay 4-13-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins when not favored by 9 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in division games … Our powerful database seals it with these two winning angles - 1) NFL division favorites of 2 or more points coming off a Monday Night SU underdog win are 0-15-1 ATS since 1993 when facing a foe whose team net YPR (Yards Per Rush) is positive; and 2) NFL dogs on a 0-3 SUATS exact streak are 10-5 SU and 11-4 when coming off a Bye week since 1980, including 5-0 SUATS from Game Seven out … With the Niners rested and getting key injured starters back in the lineup today, we recommend a strong 3* play on San Francisco 49ers. Thank you and good luck as always.
NFL - 3* Game 272 - Buccaneers (+3.5)
Edges - Bucs: QB Tom Brady 14-1 ATS career as a dog off a loss, including 10-0 ATS against foes coming off a win; and head coach Bruce Arians is 10-1 SUATS in his NFL career as a non-division home dog, including 8-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win as well as 6-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss … Chiefs: 1-6 ATS all-time as a favorite versus NFC South opponents, including 0-4 ATS when KC is coming off a win … With Brady 3-0 SUATS at home in his career when coming off a home loss, we recommend a 3* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you and good luck as always.
MTI
4.5-Star Jets +7 over Dolphins -
4-Star Packers -9.5 over Bear
4.5-Star Giants at Bengals OVER 42.5
4.5-Star Chargers at Bills Over 53 -
4-Star Chiefs at Bucs UNDER 53 -
4-Star Arizona at Patriots Over 49.5
Warren Sharp
257 Cleveland Browns Over 47.5 (0.75 units)
___
263 LA Chargers Over 52 (1 unit)
Game: (271) Kansas City Chiefs at (272) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 4:25 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 53.0 (-110)
IMPORTANT NOTICE 6pm EST Tuesday
AFTER RELEASING THIS PLAY EARLY THIS MORNING WE NOW SEE WITH THE $2 BUY THIS TOTAL BEING PUSHED TO 55 ½ AND EVEN 56 ALL WITHIN A 8 HR PERIOD. WITH MORE PEOPLE BUYING THIS RELEASE WE MIGHT SEE IT HIT 56 ½.
JUST SOME PARAMETERS 56 STILL GD AT 4%
56 ½ IS 3% 57 IS A 2%.
Our selection is on the Kansas City/ Tampa Bay over 53
We have not been impressed by either of these defenses and now that the LA Rams showed the world that you actually can throw against this Bucs D we will look for Kansas City and QB Mahomes to have a big game against a defense we have been calling suspect all year. Even though the stats might look good. KC has been unstoppable on offense. They have put up 43, 35, 33 and 35 points respectively in their last 4 games and we see no reason that they wont be over 30 again in this game. As for Brady and company they are going to get their points as well against a Kansas City D that has given up 31 points in each of their last 2 games. We like Brady to bounce back in this spot from a dismal second half performance in his last game when he threw 2 second half interceptions. We actually had this total at 55 and with the line at 53 at the time of this writing, it is a nice break from the oddsmaker. The weather should be perfect for the weekend in Tampa and that just helps send this one flying OVER the posted total.
So lets get the job done with the Kansas City/ Tampa bay OVER 53.
Marc Lawrence
NFL - 4* Game 252 - Falcons (+3) - NFL GOW
Edges - Falcons: 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS versus AFC West opponents, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog; and head coach Raheem Morris 14-9-1 ATS against opponents coming off a loss … Raiders: 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite, including 1-9 SUATS versus losing opponents; and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS away off a loss when facing NFC South opponents … We cement the call with this from our NFL Perfect System Club as it tells us to: PLAY AGAINST any sub .850 NFL single-digit road favorite off one loss-exact that was preceded by a 3-0 SUATS win streak if they are facing a foe coming off a loss of 14 or more points if the foe won 8 or fewer games last season. That’s because these deflated road favorites are 0-15-1 ATS in this role since 1980. In addition our powerful database note that NFL home dogs who started the season 0-4 are 10-0 ATS since 1990 as home dogs from Game Five out when coming off a SU and double digit ATS loss in which they scored fewer than 10 points when facing an opponent that surrendered 20 or more points in its previous game. With that, recommend a strong 4* play on Atlanta. Thank you and good luck as always.
NFL - 3* Game 269 - Forty Niners (+7)
Edges - 49ers: Head coach Kyle Shanahan 15-7 ATS away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points, including 6-0 ATS the last six; and Shanahan 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS from Game Eleven out away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points … Rams: Head coach Sean McVay 8-15-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins, including 0-5 SUATS the last five, and McVay 4-13-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins when not favored by 9 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in division games … Our powerful database seals it with these two winning angles - 1) NFL division favorites of 2 or more points coming off a Monday Night SU underdog win are 0-15-1 ATS since 1993 when facing a foe whose team net YPR (Yards Per Rush) is positive; and 2) NFL dogs on a 0-3 SUATS exact streak are 10-5 SU and 11-4 when coming off a Bye week since 1980, including 5-0 SUATS from Game Seven out … With the Niners rested and getting key injured starters back in the lineup today, we recommend a strong 3* play on San Francisco 49ers. Thank you and good luck as always.
NFL - 3* Game 272 - Buccaneers (+3.5)
Edges - Bucs: QB Tom Brady 14-1 ATS career as a dog off a loss, including 10-0 ATS against foes coming off a win; and head coach Bruce Arians is 10-1 SUATS in his NFL career as a non-division home dog, including 8-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win as well as 6-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss … Chiefs: 1-6 ATS all-time as a favorite versus NFC South opponents, including 0-4 ATS when KC is coming off a win … With Brady 3-0 SUATS at home in his career when coming off a home loss, we recommend a 3* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you and good luck as always.
MTI
4.5-Star Jets +7 over Dolphins -
4-Star Packers -9.5 over Bear
4.5-Star Giants at Bengals OVER 42.5
4.5-Star Chargers at Bills Over 53 -
4-Star Chiefs at Bucs UNDER 53 -
4-Star Arizona at Patriots Over 49.5
Warren Sharp
257 Cleveland Browns Over 47.5 (0.75 units)
___
263 LA Chargers Over 52 (1 unit)
Marc Lawrence
NFL - 4* Game 252 - Falcons (+3) - NFL GOW
Edges - Falcons: 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS versus AFC West opponents, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog; and head coach Raheem Morris 14-9-1 ATS against opponents coming off a loss … Raiders: 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite, including 1-9 SUATS versus losing opponents; and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS away off a loss when facing NFC South opponents … We cement the call with this from our NFL Perfect System Club as it tells us to: PLAY AGAINST any sub .850 NFL single-digit road favorite off one loss-exact that was preceded by a 3-0 SUATS win streak if they are facing a foe coming off a loss of 14 or more points if the foe won 8 or fewer games last season. That’s because these deflated road favorites are 0-15-1 ATS in this role since 1980. In addition our powerful database note that NFL home dogs who started the season 0-4 are 10-0 ATS since 1990 as home dogs from Game Five out when coming off a SU and double digit ATS loss in which they scored fewer than 10 points when facing an opponent that surrendered 20 or more points in its previous game. With that, recommend a strong 4* play on Atlanta. Thank you and good luck as always.
NFL - 3* Game 269 - Forty Niners (+7)
Edges - 49ers: Head coach Kyle Shanahan 15-7 ATS away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points, including 6-0 ATS the last six; and Shanahan 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS from Game Eleven out away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points … Rams: Head coach Sean McVay 8-15-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins, including 0-5 SUATS the last five, and McVay 4-13-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins when not favored by 9 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in division games … Our powerful database seals it with these two winning angles - 1) NFL division favorites of 2 or more points coming off a Monday Night SU underdog win are 0-15-1 ATS since 1993 when facing a foe whose team net YPR (Yards Per Rush) is positive; and 2) NFL dogs on a 0-3 SUATS exact streak are 10-5 SU and 11-4 when coming off a Bye week since 1980, including 5-0 SUATS from Game Seven out … With the Niners rested and getting key injured starters back in the lineup today, we recommend a strong 3* play on San Francisco 49ers. Thank you and good luck as always.
NFL - 3* Game 272 - Buccaneers (+3.5)
Edges - Bucs: QB Tom Brady 14-1 ATS career as a dog off a loss, including 10-0 ATS against foes coming off a win; and head coach Bruce Arians is 10-1 SUATS in his NFL career as a non-division home dog, including 8-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win as well as 6-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss … Chiefs: 1-6 ATS all-time as a favorite versus NFC South opponents, including 0-4 ATS when KC is coming off a win … With Brady 3-0 SUATS at home in his career when coming off a home loss, we recommend a 3* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you and good luck as always.
NFL - 4* Game 252 - Falcons (+3) - NFL GOW
Edges - Falcons: 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS versus AFC West opponents, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog; and head coach Raheem Morris 14-9-1 ATS against opponents coming off a loss … Raiders: 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite, including 1-9 SUATS versus losing opponents; and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS away off a loss when facing NFC South opponents … We cement the call with this from our NFL Perfect System Club as it tells us to: PLAY AGAINST any sub .850 NFL single-digit road favorite off one loss-exact that was preceded by a 3-0 SUATS win streak if they are facing a foe coming off a loss of 14 or more points if the foe won 8 or fewer games last season. That’s because these deflated road favorites are 0-15-1 ATS in this role since 1980. In addition our powerful database note that NFL home dogs who started the season 0-4 are 10-0 ATS since 1990 as home dogs from Game Five out when coming off a SU and double digit ATS loss in which they scored fewer than 10 points when facing an opponent that surrendered 20 or more points in its previous game. With that, recommend a strong 4* play on Atlanta. Thank you and good luck as always.
NFL - 3* Game 269 - Forty Niners (+7)
Edges - 49ers: Head coach Kyle Shanahan 15-7 ATS away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points, including 6-0 ATS the last six; and Shanahan 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS from Game Eleven out away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points … Rams: Head coach Sean McVay 8-15-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins, including 0-5 SUATS the last five, and McVay 4-13-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins when not favored by 9 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in division games … Our powerful database seals it with these two winning angles - 1) NFL division favorites of 2 or more points coming off a Monday Night SU underdog win are 0-15-1 ATS since 1993 when facing a foe whose team net YPR (Yards Per Rush) is positive; and 2) NFL dogs on a 0-3 SUATS exact streak are 10-5 SU and 11-4 when coming off a Bye week since 1980, including 5-0 SUATS from Game Seven out … With the Niners rested and getting key injured starters back in the lineup today, we recommend a strong 3* play on San Francisco 49ers. Thank you and good luck as always.
NFL - 3* Game 272 - Buccaneers (+3.5)
Edges - Bucs: QB Tom Brady 14-1 ATS career as a dog off a loss, including 10-0 ATS against foes coming off a win; and head coach Bruce Arians is 10-1 SUATS in his NFL career as a non-division home dog, including 8-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win as well as 6-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss … Chiefs: 1-6 ATS all-time as a favorite versus NFC South opponents, including 0-4 ATS when KC is coming off a win … With Brady 3-0 SUATS at home in his career when coming off a home loss, we recommend a 3* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you and good luck as always.
JOHN RYAN
John Ryan 5% NFL Best Bet Titan
Game: (269) San Francisco 49ers at (270) Los Angeles Rams
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 4:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
4:05 PM EST, November 25, 2020
5% NFL Best Bet Titan on the LA Rams minus the points.
My models use three-game moving averages among 220 other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. An NFL team with three games that are far below their season-to-date rushing average and facing a divisional opponent is just 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2000. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one.
The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a remarkable 13-1 SU record and 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.
The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2.0 Yard-per-play. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.0 or more YPPL than the opponent are a profit-making 38-19-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. When these games have seen a posted total of 45 or more points have earned a 17-5 SU record good for 77% winning bets and 16-6 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006.
Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a 99.5 QBR and completed 38 of 51 pass attempts. Goff is 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets coming off a game where he completed 30 or more passes. He and his Rams are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS coming off a game where they converted better than 50% of their third-down situations.
Bet the Los Angeles Rams minus the points as a 5% Best Bet Titan
John Ryan 5% NFL Best Bet Titan
Game: (269) San Francisco 49ers at (270) Los Angeles Rams
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 4:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
4:05 PM EST, November 25, 2020
5% NFL Best Bet Titan on the LA Rams minus the points.
My models use three-game moving averages among 220 other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. An NFL team with three games that are far below their season-to-date rushing average and facing a divisional opponent is just 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2000. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one.
The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a remarkable 13-1 SU record and 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.
The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2.0 Yard-per-play. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.0 or more YPPL than the opponent are a profit-making 38-19-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. When these games have seen a posted total of 45 or more points have earned a 17-5 SU record good for 77% winning bets and 16-6 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006.
Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a 99.5 QBR and completed 38 of 51 pass attempts. Goff is 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets coming off a game where he completed 30 or more passes. He and his Rams are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS coming off a game where they converted better than 50% of their third-down situations.
Bet the Los Angeles Rams minus the points as a 5% Best Bet Titan
WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST
ODBMG2 - W38 L15 T2 LW 1-4
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE NO SF SEA
CAPENJ - W35 L18 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: ATL JAX CAR LAC CHI
MARTY MUSH - W35 L19 T1 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE CAR LAC NO
TOURIST - W33 L18 T4 LW 4-1
Week 12 Picks: TEN BUF LAR TB CHI
THE KING OF GREEN - W34 L19 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: CLE LAC DEN SF PHI
GRIND EM OUT - W34 L19 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: DET NE IND LAR TB
OOPHIE 69 - W34 L19 T2 LW 2-3
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE CAR MIA NO
INVISIBLE - W34 L19 T2 LW 2-3
Week 12 Picks: LV CIN TEN NO SF
PARLAY KG - W34 L19 T2 LW 1-4
Week 12 Picks: LV ARI NYG TEN SEA
ODBMG2 - W38 L15 T2 LW 1-4
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE NO SF SEA
CAPENJ - W35 L18 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: ATL JAX CAR LAC CHI
MARTY MUSH - W35 L19 T1 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE CAR LAC NO
TOURIST - W33 L18 T4 LW 4-1
Week 12 Picks: TEN BUF LAR TB CHI
THE KING OF GREEN - W34 L19 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: CLE LAC DEN SF PHI
GRIND EM OUT - W34 L19 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: DET NE IND LAR TB
OOPHIE 69 - W34 L19 T2 LW 2-3
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE CAR MIA NO
INVISIBLE - W34 L19 T2 LW 2-3
Week 12 Picks: LV CIN TEN NO SF
PARLAY KG - W34 L19 T2 LW 1-4
Week 12 Picks: LV ARI NYG TEN SEA
NFL(BOB BALFE)
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #258
Browns -7 over Jaguars
The Browns are itching to play in a game that the weather doesn?t limit their offense. The weather will be nice and Cleveland could not have drawn a more perfect opponent on defense. The Jags are brutal and to make matters worse they will be starting Mike Glennon today at QB. Glennon has not thrown a ball in a game since 2017. Cleveland should put up a ton of points today on offense and on defense create turnovers. The Browns Defensive Line is missing a few key pass rushers today, but Glennon and his timing will be so off that this unit should force him into silly mistakes. Cleveland should have a balanced rushing attack of their own, but you know they are going to try to pass it more today just to get Baker Mayfield some positive stats. Take Cleveland.
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #258
Browns -7 over Jaguars
The Browns are itching to play in a game that the weather doesn?t limit their offense. The weather will be nice and Cleveland could not have drawn a more perfect opponent on defense. The Jags are brutal and to make matters worse they will be starting Mike Glennon today at QB. Glennon has not thrown a ball in a game since 2017. Cleveland should put up a ton of points today on offense and on defense create turnovers. The Browns Defensive Line is missing a few key pass rushers today, but Glennon and his timing will be so off that this unit should force him into silly mistakes. Cleveland should have a balanced rushing attack of their own, but you know they are going to try to pass it more today just to get Baker Mayfield some positive stats. Take Cleveland.
Market update
1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts
This line opened with the Colts listed anywhere between 3.5-point and 4.5-point home favorites. A slight majority of bets, along with a heavy dose of respected money, is coming on the road dog Titans, droppIng Tennessee down to + 3. The Titans have value as a divisional dog (32-24 ATS, 57% this season), a short road dog + 6 or less (40-24 ATS, 62%) and a road team with a line move in their favor (51-38 ATS, 57%). This is also a revenge spot for the Titans, who got embarrassed by the Colts 34-17 two weeks ago, losing as 1-point home dogs. The Colts will be without two key players due to COVID: defensive lineman DeForest Buckner and running back Jonathan Taylor.
Pros are also eying this over, which has risen from 49.5 to 51.5. Both teams have been profitable to the over, with the Titans 7-2-1 and the Colts 6-4.
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public says give me Bills Mafia off a bye against an inferior team. However, despite the majority of tickets laying the points with Buffalo, we've seen this line tumble from -6 to -4.5. This signals respected money coming in on Justin Herbert and the Chargers, causing sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 39-24 ATS (62%) this season.
We've also seen some over money raise this total from 51 to 51.5. Both teams have been excellent to the over this season. Los Angeles is 7-3 and Buffalo is 8-2.
4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is more than happy to fade the struggling 49ers and lay the points with the Rams after an impressive primetime. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Rams fall from -7 to -5.5, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the 49ers. San Francisco has value as a divisional dog (32-24 ATS, 57% this season). San Francisco also has a big rest advantage as they are coming off a bye and the Rams are on a short week having played Monday night. The Cowboys (+ 7, beat Vikings 31-28 in Week 11) and Dolphins (+ 3.5, beat Rams 28-17 in Week 8) both covered in this ultimate "rest vs tired" spot earlier this season. Dogs off a bye are 5-3 ATS (62%) this season.
We've also seen some under money drop this total from 46.5 to 44.5.
1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts
This line opened with the Colts listed anywhere between 3.5-point and 4.5-point home favorites. A slight majority of bets, along with a heavy dose of respected money, is coming on the road dog Titans, droppIng Tennessee down to + 3. The Titans have value as a divisional dog (32-24 ATS, 57% this season), a short road dog + 6 or less (40-24 ATS, 62%) and a road team with a line move in their favor (51-38 ATS, 57%). This is also a revenge spot for the Titans, who got embarrassed by the Colts 34-17 two weeks ago, losing as 1-point home dogs. The Colts will be without two key players due to COVID: defensive lineman DeForest Buckner and running back Jonathan Taylor.
Pros are also eying this over, which has risen from 49.5 to 51.5. Both teams have been profitable to the over, with the Titans 7-2-1 and the Colts 6-4.
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public says give me Bills Mafia off a bye against an inferior team. However, despite the majority of tickets laying the points with Buffalo, we've seen this line tumble from -6 to -4.5. This signals respected money coming in on Justin Herbert and the Chargers, causing sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 39-24 ATS (62%) this season.
We've also seen some over money raise this total from 51 to 51.5. Both teams have been excellent to the over this season. Los Angeles is 7-3 and Buffalo is 8-2.
4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is more than happy to fade the struggling 49ers and lay the points with the Rams after an impressive primetime. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Rams fall from -7 to -5.5, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the 49ers. San Francisco has value as a divisional dog (32-24 ATS, 57% this season). San Francisco also has a big rest advantage as they are coming off a bye and the Rams are on a short week having played Monday night. The Cowboys (+ 7, beat Vikings 31-28 in Week 11) and Dolphins (+ 3.5, beat Rams 28-17 in Week 8) both covered in this ultimate "rest vs tired" spot earlier this season. Dogs off a bye are 5-3 ATS (62%) this season.
We've also seen some under money drop this total from 46.5 to 44.5.
Per
@PointsBetUSA
's
@P24Eichner
on ARI-NE: Line from Cards -2.5 to -1 to -2, back to -1.5 today. "All action on the side backing Arizona, approximately 90% of bets and handle." Pros vs Joes on total, from 49 to 49.5 to 49, now 50. 65% of bets on Over, but money split 50/50.
@PointsBetUSA
's
@P24Eichner
on ARI-NE: Line from Cards -2.5 to -1 to -2, back to -1.5 today. "All action on the side backing Arizona, approximately 90% of bets and handle." Pros vs Joes on total, from 49 to 49.5 to 49, now 50. 65% of bets on Over, but money split 50/50.
Per
@PointsBetUSA
's
@P24Eichner
on LAS-ATL: Raiders -3 all week, despite ~ 5/1 tickets and 3/1 money on Las Vegas. total from 55 to 55.5, then creeps down to 53.5. Tickets 3/1, money 2/1 on Over.
@PointsBetUSA
's
@P24Eichner
on LAS-ATL: Raiders -3 all week, despite ~ 5/1 tickets and 3/1 money on Las Vegas. total from 55 to 55.5, then creeps down to 53.5. Tickets 3/1, money 2/1 on Over.
Per
@PointsBetUSA
's Patrick Eichner (
@P24Eichner
) on TEN-IND: Colts from -3.5 to -4 to -3, tickets 2/1 and money 4/1 on underdog Titans. Total from 50.5 to 51.5, 56% of tickets/ 64% of money on Over.
@PointsBetUSA
's Patrick Eichner (
@P24Eichner
) on TEN-IND: Colts from -3.5 to -4 to -3, tickets 2/1 and money 4/1 on underdog Titans. Total from 50.5 to 51.5, 56% of tickets/ 64% of money on Over.
ADDENDUM, per
@BetMGM
's
@ElisaRichardson
: That one large play in CAR-MIN is $110K on Vikings -3.
Quote Tweet
Patrick Everson
@Covers_Vegas
· 33m
Per @BetMGM Nevada's @scottatmirage on CAR-MIN: Vikings from -4.5 to -3, tickets 2/1 Vikings, money 10/1 Vikings, but that's largely due to one #MajorWager. "It's us vs. one person. If it weren't for that one bet, money would be really close."
@BetMGM
's
@ElisaRichardson
: That one large play in CAR-MIN is $110K on Vikings -3.
Quote Tweet
Patrick Everson
@Covers_Vegas
· 33m
Per @BetMGM Nevada's @scottatmirage on CAR-MIN: Vikings from -4.5 to -3, tickets 2/1 Vikings, money 10/1 Vikings, but that's largely due to one #MajorWager. "It's us vs. one person. If it weren't for that one bet, money would be really close."
ADDENDUM ON #MajorWager play in this game, per
@BetMGM
's
@ElisaRichardson
: $110K Bills -4.5, $71.5K Bills -4, $49K early in week at Bills -5.5.
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Patrick Everson
@Covers_Vegas
· 1h
Per @BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton (@scottatmirage) on LAC-BUF: Bills from -5.5 to -4 to -4.5. "Tickets roughly 2/1 in favor of Bills, and money over 10/1. Parlays and teasers all Bills." The straight-bet discrepancy is aided greatly by a larger play. More on that in a bit.
@BetMGM
's
@ElisaRichardson
: $110K Bills -4.5, $71.5K Bills -4, $49K early in week at Bills -5.5.
Quote Tweet
Patrick Everson
@Covers_Vegas
· 1h
Per @BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton (@scottatmirage) on LAC-BUF: Bills from -5.5 to -4 to -4.5. "Tickets roughly 2/1 in favor of Bills, and money over 10/1. Parlays and teasers all Bills." The straight-bet discrepancy is aided greatly by a larger play. More on that in a bit.
2/ Per
@BetMGM
Nevada's
@scottatmirage
on LAS-ATL: "It's the biggest decision of the early games, and it could be the biggest decision of the day."
@BetMGM
Nevada's
@scottatmirage
on LAS-ATL: "It's the biggest decision of the early games, and it could be the biggest decision of the day."