MLB trends for 4-23-11 . . .

Hobart

Senior Member
#1
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Write-Up










































4-23-11






































Hot pitchers

-- Lilly is 1-1, 3.12 in his last three starts.
-- Gee won his first '11 start, allowing one run in 5.2 IP.
-- Giants won last three Lincecum starts (2-0, 2.25).
-- Hernandez is 2-0, 1.32 in his last couple starts.
-- Brewers won last three Marcum starts (2-0, 1.42). Myers is 1-0, 2.79 in his last three starts.

-- Price is 2-0, 1.15 in his last two starts.
-- Carrasco is 1-0, 3.86 in his last three starts.
-- Sabathia has a 2.41 RA in his last three starts.
-- Carmona is 1-1, 1.66 in his last three starts. Minnesota won all three Duensing starts (1-0, 4.05).
-- Ogando is 2-0, 2.33 in three starts this season.
-- Cahill is 2-0, 2.49 in four starts this season. Vargas has a 2.13 RA in his last couple starts.



Cold pitchers

-- Dempster is 1-2, 7.20 in four starts this season.
-- Cardinals are 0-4 in Carpenter starts (0-2, 4.50). Wood is 0-2, 7.80 in his last three starts.
-- THudson is 0-2, 6.75 in his last couple starts.
-- Karstens allowed five runs in 4.1 IP in his first '11 start.
-- Enright is 0-1, 6.23 in three starts this season.
-- Hammel is 1-1, 5.82 in three starts this season. Vazquez is 1-1, 9.45 in three starts this season.
-- Blanton is 0-1, 7.27 in three starts this season. Stauffer is 0-1, 6.00 in two home starts this season.

-- Morrow is making first '11 start; he was 10-7, 4.49 in 26 starts for the Blue Jays, LY, allowing 136 hits in 146.1 IP.
-- Penny is 0-2, 8.44 in four starts this season. EJackson is 1-1, 4.85 in two road starts.
-- Bergesen is 0-2, 7.27 in two starts this season.
-- Davies has a 7.20 RA in four starts this season.
-- Santana is 0-2, 5.68 in his last three starts. Matsuzaka is 1-2, 6.43 in three starts; his only good start came when he had six days' rest, which is what he usually had in Japan.



Totals

-- Over is 9-2-2 in Dodgers' last thirteen games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Washington's last eight road games.
-- Six of nine Florida home games went over the total.
-- Six of Mets' last seven games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in Marcum starts this season.
-- Seven of last eight St Louis home games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in Phillies' last nine games.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Atlanta games.

-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight White Sox games.
-- Six of last nine Baltimore games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Texas games.
-- Under is 14-3-1 in last eighteen Minnesota games.
-- Under is 11-2-2 in Angels' last fifteen games.
-- Eight of last ten Oakland road games stayed under total.



Hot teams

-- Dodgers won five of their last six games. Cubs are 7-2 this season in game following a loss.
-- Washington is 8-5 in its last 13 games.
-- Marlins won seven of their last eight games. Colorado won six of its last seven road games.
-- Brewers won six of their last seven home games.
-- Cardinals won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Phillies won six of their last seven road games.
-- Giants won six of their last nine games.

-- Tigers won seven of their last ten games.
-- Bronx Bombers won five of their last seven games.
-- Tampa Bay won eight of its last eleven games.
-- Indians won 13 of their last 17 games.
-- Angels won nine of their last thirteen games. Red Sox won six of their last seven games.
-- Mariners won three of their last four games.



Cold teams

-- Reds lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Pirates lost their last three games by combined score of 21-5.
-- Mets lost seven of their last nine games at home, but won last two. Arizona is 3-5 in its last eight road games.
-- Astros lost seven of their first ten road games.
-- Padres lost eleven of their last sixteen games.
-- Atlanta lost six of its last eight road games.

-- White Sox lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Orioles lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Blue Jays lost four of their last six games.
-- Twins lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Rangers, Royals both lost four of their last six games.
-- Oakland lost its last three games, scoring total of three runs.



Umpires

-- LA-Cubs-- Lefty starters are 2-0 vs righties in Nelson games this year.
-- Az-NYM-- Favorites won three of four Tichenor games this year.
-- Cin-StL-- All three Barry games this season went over the total.
-- Atl-SF-- Three of four Joyce games went over the total.
-- Wsh-Pitt-- No idea who umpires are for this game.
-- Hst-Mil-- This is Muchlinski's first game behind the plate this year.
-- Colo-Fla--Three of four Iassogna games stayed under the total.
-- Phil-SD-- Home side won both Reynolds games this season.

-- TB-Tor-- Home side won last four Winters games.
-- Clev-Min-- No idea who umpires are for this game.
-- CWS-Det-- Underdogs won two of last three Johnson games.
-- NYY-Balt-- No idea who umpires are for this game.
-- KC-Tex-- Home side won both Carapazza games: 5-0/2-1.
-- Bos-LAA-- Over is 2-0-1 in Randazzo games this season.
-- A's-Sea-- Lefties are 2-0 vs righties in Rapuano games this season.



















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Trends












































1:05 PM
LA DODGERS vs. CHI CUBS
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Dodgers's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Chi Cubs's last 15 games
Chi Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers

1:07 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. TORONTO
Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:10 PM
CLEVELAND vs. MINNESOTA
Cleveland13-4-1 SU in its last 18 games
Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,when playing Minnesota
Minnesota4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Minnesota is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,at home

1:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Arizona's last 16 games on the road
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

4:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Chi White Sox are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
Detroit is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox

4:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 12 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

4:10 PM
CINCINNATI vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

7:05 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PITTSBURGH
Washington7-1-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Washington4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games ,when playing at home against Washington
Pittsburgh is 1-7-1 SU in its last 9 games ,when playing Washington

7:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BALTIMORE
NY Yankees are 2-5-1 SU in their last 8 games ,on the road
NY Yankees15-4-1 SU in their last 20 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games ,at home
Baltimore is 3-10-1 SU in their last 14 games ,when playing at home against NY Yankees

7:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. MILWAUKEE
Houston is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games
Houston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games

7:10 PM
COLORADO vs. FLORIDA
Colorado is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
Colorado is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
Florida is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

8:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. TEXAS
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Kansas City
Texas is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

8:35 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

9:05 PM
BOSTON vs. LA ANGELS
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Boston is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games at home
LA Angels are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games when playing Boston

9:10 PM
OAKLAND vs. SEATTLE
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oakland's last 10 games on the road
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Seattle is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Oakland





















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National League






LA DODGERS at CHICAGO CUBS, 1:05 PM ET
LILLY: DODGERS 64-29 if bullpen ERA is over 7.00 L10 games
DEMPSTER: 5-14 TSR in day games

ARIZONA at NY METS, 1:10 PM ET
ENRIGHT: ARI 9-29 Away off Under
GEE: METS 0-6 at home vs. righties

CINCINNATI at ST LOUIS, 4:10 PM ET FOX
WOOD: CIN 28-15 Over off loss by 2 runs or less
CARPENTER: 5-10 TSR in day games

ATLANTA at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:10 PM ET FOX
HUDSON: ATL 0-6 after allowing 1 run or less
LINCECUM: SF 94-63 off a loss

WASHINGTON at PITTSBURGH, 7:05 PM ET
HERNANDEZ: WAS 1-18 Away playing with a day off
KARSTENS: PIT 16-4 Under off 6+ road games

HOUSTON at MILWAUKEE, 7:10 PM ET
MYERS: 15-7 TSR working on 5 or 6 days rest
MARCUM: MIL 3-13 after hitting .333 L3 games

COLORADO at FLORIDA, 7:10 PM ET
HAMMEL: COL 21-36 Away vs. righties
VAZQUEZ: FLA 10-2 vs. righties

PHILADELPHIA at SAN DIEGO, 8:35 PM ET (TC)
BLANTON: 10-1 Over as road favorite
STAUFFER: SD 27-16 with double revenge

























American League






TAMPA BAY at TORONTO, 1:07 PM ET
PRICE: 20-5 TSR vs. division
MORROW: 11-2 TSR in home games

CLEVELAND at MINNESOTA, 1:10 PM ET
CARMONA: CLE 7-0 vs. team with losing record
DUENSING: MIN 22-32 after allowing 1 run or less

CHI WHITE SOX at DETROIT, 4:10 PM ET FOX
JACKSON: WHITE SOX 36-22 in day games
PENNY: 23-12 TSR as underdog

NY YANKEES at BALTIMORE, 7:05 PM ET
SABATHIA: NYY 9-16 Away off loss by 2 runs or less
BERGESEN: BAL 34-19 Under vs. lefties

KANSAS CITY at TEXAS, 8:05 PM ET
DAVIES: 9-5 TSR as a road underdog of +175 to +250
OGANDO: TEX 22-10 Under after allowing 8+ runs

BOSTON at LA ANGELS, 9:05 PM ET MLB
MATSUZAKA: 15-6 Over when the total is 8.5 to 10
SANTANA: 12-2 Over at home off BB Losses

OAKLAND at SEATTLE, 9:10 PM ET
CAHILL: 15-7 TSR vs. division
VARGAS: SEA 38-81 as underdog
























** (TC) Denotes Time Change






























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AC2

Senior Member
#2
Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants (-153, 6.5)

Two teams still searching for their offense send a pair of aces to the mound for a Saturday afternoon game in San Francisco.

Tim Hudson takes the mound for the Braves against the Giants’ Tim Lincecum.

The Braves have had moderate success against Lincecum, with current Atlanta players hitting .274 against the young righthander.

In contrast, the Giants have done nothing against Hudson. Hudson is 1-0 with an anemic 1.20 ERA in two starts over the last three years against the Giants.

The price isn’t as high you’d normally get when going against Lincecum, but in what appears destined to be a close game, we’ll take our chances on the Braves finding a way to scratch out a winning run.


Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates (NL)

After Friday’s game was rained out, veteran Nationals’ starter Livan Hernandez will be extra fresh. That’s bad news for the host Pirates.

Hernandez has won back-to-back starts, allowing only one run with nine strikeouts and no walks in 13.2 innings.

Hernandez has not had a lot of success at PNC Park, going 1-4 and he’s just 5-5 with a 5.52 ERA for his career against the Pirates.

But with the Pirates scrounging for a starter and throwing the erratic Jeff Karstens on the mound, we can’t help but think the Nationals, with Hernandez, have the most value.
 

AC2

Senior Member
#3
MLB News and Notes Saturday 4/23


MLB Betting Preview: White Sox at Detroit Tigers
By: SBG Global

The Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers play the middle game of their three-game weekend set on Saturday in a game that can be seen regionally on FOX television. Both Chicago and Detroit have struggled early in the baseball betting season and each team can point to their poor pitching as the big reason for the early trouble.

The White Sox have the pitching edge Saturday afternoon as they are scheduled to send Edwin Jackson to the mound. He had a bad first inning on Monday against Tampa Bay, then settled down and pitched well though the White Sox were stymied by David Price in the defeat.

In his last three starts, Jackson is 1-1 with a 3.66 ERA. He has pitched well in his career against the Tigers with a record of 3-1 and a 3.33 ERA. He has 44 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings in his career against Detroit.

Detroit is set to send Brad Penny to the mound on Saturday. Not much has gone well for Penny this betting season. He gave up five runs in just over five innings of work last time out against Oakland. In his last three starts, Penny is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA.

Both Chicago and Detroit have some problems right now. The White Sox are scoring enough runs to win games but their pitching has been very inconsistent and their bullpen has been awful.

Detroit is even worse as their pitching is near the bottom of the league and other than Justin Verlander there is not much to like in their starting rotation.

The difference in the two teams is that Chicago has been scoring a few more runs and White Sox starting pitching has more depth.

Before yesterday’s game the Tigers had won 11 of the last 20 meetings against the White Sox. Chicago has held their own on the road in Detroit as before Friday’s game they had split the last 10 meetings.

Chicago won five games and lost four games in Detroit last season. The White Sox won five of the first six meetings but then lost the last three.

Six of the 10 games between the two teams in Detroit last season went 'over' the total.
 

AC2

Senior Member
#4
MLB News and Notes Saturday 4/23


Texas Rangers, KC Royals in MLB betting clash
By: Brad Young

Two American League teams battling near the top of their respective divisions continue their three-game series with Saturday’s matchup.

Both Kansas City and Texas entered Friday’s action in second place. The Royals trail Cleveland in the AL Central standings, while the Rangers are right on the heels of the Los Angeles Angels in the AL West.

Kansas City pitcher Kyle Davies (1-1, 7.20 ERA) picked up a no-decision in Monday’s effort against Cleveland. The six-year veteran was reached for two runs on seven hits with no walks and seven strikeouts over six innings and 90 pitches.

The Royals eventually dropped that contest as a 105 home ‘pick,’ 7-3, while the combined 10 runs slithered ‘over’ the 9 ½-run closing total. The ‘over’ is 3-1 during his four starts this season.

Davies' lone victory of the season came April 13 versus Minnesota as a 161 road underdog, 10-5, while the combined 15 runs soared ‘over’ the 8½-run closing total. The right-hander lasted just five innings, yielding five runs on 10 hits with a walk and four strikeouts.

Kansas City has not beaten the Rangers the previous six times Davies has pitched against Texas, including both efforts last year. The 27-year-old went a combined 12 1/3 innings, surrendering 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits (one home run) with four walks and eight strikeouts. The Royals dropped those games as a 134 road underdog, 13-12, and as a 157 home ‘dog, 3-0.

The ‘over’ is 3-1 his past four starts against the Rangers.

Texas hurler Alexi Ogando (2-0, 2.33 ERA) escaped with a no-decision in Sunday’s effort versus the New York Yankees. The Dominican pitched 6 1/3 innings, surrendering five runs on six hits (three home runs) with a walk and a strikeout on 92 pitches.

That marked his season-high pitch total in three starts. The Rangers eventually dropped that contest as a 152 road underdog, 6-5, while the combined 11 runs went ‘over’ the 8 ½-run closing total. The ‘under’ cashed his first two starts of the season.

Ogando beat Detroit in his previous effort April 11 as a 128 road underdog, 2-0. The rookie right-hander tossed seven innings while allowing just two hits with a walk and four strikeouts.

Ogando has never started against the Royals in his brief major league career.

Kansas City has struggled to a 17-35 record its last 52 road games heading into Friday’s matchup. The Royals are just 7-19 their previous 26 meetings with the Rangers.

Texas has seen the ‘under’ go 7-2-1 its past 10 outings overall. The Rangers are also 7-2 their previous 10 home outings.

The Rangers continue to do without MVP slugger Josh Hamilton who suffered a broken arm earlier this month in Detroit. He's expected to be out until the end of May.

Kansas City continues a six-game road trip after this series with three games at Cleveland. Texas follows this series with four home games against Toronto before embarking on a seven-game road trip versus AL West rivals Oakland and Seattle.

First pitch is scheduled for 5:05 p.m. PT from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Saturday’s forecast for Arlington, Texas calls for just a 10 percent chance of rain, with a high of 90 degrees and a low of 72.
 

AC2

Senior Member
#5
MLB Trends Saturday 4/23


LA DODGERS (11 - 10) at CHICAGO CUBS (9 - 10)

TED LILLY (L) vs. RYAN DEMPSTER (R)

Top Trends for this game.
LILLY is 27-39 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
DEMPSTER is 74-61 (+17.7 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997.
DEMPSTER is 35-23 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 168-175 (-35.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 41-51 (-24.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 616-614 (-116.5 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 41-51 (-24.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DEMPSTER is 31-39 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DEMPSTER is 7-12 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DEMPSTER is 5-14 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
DEMPSTER is 7-12 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

TED LILLY vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.

RYAN DEMPSTER vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
DEMPSTER is 7-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.33 and a WHIP of 1.195.
His team's record is 10-3 (+7.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-8. (-3.1 units)


ARIZONA (8 - 10) at NY METS (7 - 13)

BARRY ENRIGHT (R) vs. DILLON GEE (R)

Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 73-108 (-26.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 29-61 (-22.4 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 35-63 (-26.4 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 71-107 (-29.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 19-39 (-21.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 0-6 (-7.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
NY METS are 65-94 (-33.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against ARIZONA this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

BARRY ENRIGHT vs. NY METS since 1997
ENRIGHT is 1-0 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 0.929.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

DILLON GEE vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.


CINCINNATI (10 - 10) at ST LOUIS (11 - 9)

TRAVIS WOOD (L) vs. CHRIS CARPENTER (R)

Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 532-611 (+52.8 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 55-35 (+15.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 179-166 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 390-444 (+45.5 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
ST LOUIS is 96-85 (-23.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 41-41 (-25.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 94-84 (-23.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 29-31 (-15.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 47-46 (-17.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CARPENTER is 5-10 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.1 Units)

TRAVIS WOOD vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
WOOD is 1-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)

CHRIS CARPENTER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
CARPENTER is 12-3 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 2.02 and a WHIP of 0.830.
His team's record is 14-4 (+7.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-12. (-6.9 units)


ATLANTA (9 - 12) at SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 9)

TIM HUDSON (R) vs. TIM LINCECUM (R)

Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 41-54 (-19.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 41-54 (-19.7 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 731-600 (-83.3 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 113-84 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 46-27 (+16.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 110-66 (+27.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 112-82 (+23.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 81-61 (+16.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 94-63 (+29.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 89-56 (+21.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

TIM HUDSON vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
HUDSON is 5-4 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.163.
His team's record is 7-7 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.7 units)

TIM LINCECUM vs. ATLANTA since 1997
LINCECUM is 7-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.47 and a WHIP of 1.032.
His team's record is 7-2 (+5.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-7. (-5.4 units)


WASHINGTON (9 - 9) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 11)

LIVAN HERNANDEZ (R) vs. JEFF KARSTENS (R)

Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 2-18 (-15.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 1-18 (-16.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 409-393 (+46.6 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 44-90 (-26.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 74-139 (-36.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

LIVAN HERNANDEZ vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 5-5 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 5.52 and a WHIP of 1.559.
His team's record is 8-8 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-5. (+5.5 units)

JEFF KARSTENS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
KARSTENS is 0-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 6.55 and a WHIP of 1.636.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)


HOUSTON (7 - 13) at MILWAUKEE (10 - 9)

BRETT MYERS (R) vs. SHAUN MARCUM (R)

Top Trends for this game.
MARCUM is 29-19 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
HOUSTON is 47-38 (+18.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MYERS is 22-15 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MYERS is 9-2 (+12.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 since 1997.
MYERS is 15-5 (+12.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MYERS is 22-15 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons
MYERS is 17-9 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
MYERS is 15-6 (+11.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MYERS is 13-6 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against HOUSTON this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

BRETT MYERS vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
MYERS is 4-3 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.14 and a WHIP of 1.079.
His team's record is 5-4 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-8. (-7.3 units)

SHAUN MARCUM vs. HOUSTON since 1997
No recent starts.


COLORADO (13 - 6) at FLORIDA (12 - 6)

JASON HAMMEL (R) vs. JAVIER VAZQUEZ (R)

Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 69-93 (-34.5 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997.
COLORADO is 5-15 (-12.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 55-64 (-25.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 21-36 (-19.3 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 12-3 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
FLORIDA is 10-2 (+8.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
FLORIDA is 537-602 (+38.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
FLORIDA is 12-27 (-13.7 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 3 seasons.
VAZQUEZ is 12-16 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
VAZQUEZ is 12-16 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against COLORADO this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

JASON HAMMEL vs. FLORIDA since 1997
HAMMEL is 0-3 when starting against FLORIDA with an ERA of 8.22 and a WHIP of 1.826.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

JAVIER VAZQUEZ vs. COLORADO since 1997
VAZQUEZ is 4-2 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.233.
His team's record is 4-4 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-3. (+0.6 units)


PHILADELPHIA (13 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (8 - 12)

JOE BLANTON (R) vs. TIM STAUFFER (R)

Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 98-85 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 96-84 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 31-15 (+13.3 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 106-75 (+23.4 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 103-72 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

JOE BLANTON vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
BLANTON is 2-1 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 5.32 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

TIM STAUFFER vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
STAUFFER is 0-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 16.40 and a WHIP of 2.465.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.4 units)
 

AC2

Senior Member
#6
MLB Trends Saturday 4/23


TAMPA BAY (9 - 11) at TORONTO (9 - 10)

DAVID PRICE (L) vs. BRANDON MORROW (R)

Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 43-60 (-25.6 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997.
TORONTO is 94-88 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MORROW is 11-2 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MORROW is 11-2 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 395-505 (+12.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997.
PRICE is 20-5 (+15.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

DAVID PRICE vs. TORONTO since 1997
PRICE is 6-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 1.071.
His team's record is 7-0 (+7.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.2 units)

BRANDON MORROW vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
MORROW is 2-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 1.67 and a WHIP of 0.852.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.3 units)


CLEVELAND (13 - 6) at MINNESOTA (7 - 12)

FAUSTO CARMONA (R) vs. BRIAN DUENSING (L)

Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 48-26 (+13.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DUENSING is 11-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 13-6 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 13-6 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-0 (+9.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

FAUSTO CARMONA vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
CARMONA is 4-7 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 4.83 and a WHIP of 1.424.
His team's record is 6-8 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-6. (+0.0 units)

BRIAN DUENSING vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
DUENSING is 2-0 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.425.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)


CHI WHITE SOX (8 - 12) at DETROIT (10 - 10)

EDWIN JACKSON (R) vs. BRAD PENNY (R)

Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 36-44 (-15.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 107-63 (+26.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 107-63 (+26.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 36-22 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 418-421 (+41.2 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
DETROIT is 224-249 (-66.2 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

EDWIN JACKSON vs. DETROIT since 1997
JACKSON is 2-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.23 and a WHIP of 1.437.
His team's record is 4-3 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+2.1 units)

BRAD PENNY vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
No recent starts.


NY YANKEES (10 - 6) at BALTIMORE (8 - 10)

C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. BRADLEY BERGESEN (R)

Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 23-28 (-14.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 197-269 (-77.0 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 260-329 (-94.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
SABATHIA is 14-2 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 2.86 and a WHIP of 1.101.
His team's record is 16-4 (+8.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-8. (+1.5 units)

BRADLEY BERGESEN vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
BERGESEN is 0-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.468.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)


KANSAS CITY (12 - 8) at TEXAS (12 - 7)

KYLE DAVIES (R) vs. ALEXI OGANDO (R)

Top Trends for this game.
DAVIES is 16-13 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

KYLE DAVIES vs. TEXAS since 1997
DAVIES is 0-4 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.38 and a WHIP of 1.909.
His team's record is 0-7 (-7.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-4. (-1.4 units)

ALEXI OGANDO vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
No recent starts.


BOSTON (8 - 11) at LA ANGELS (12 - 8)

DAISUKE MATSUZAKA (R) vs. ERVIN SANTANA (R)

Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 86-78 (-18.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 65-42 (+20.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 577-499 (+63.6 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997.
MATSUZAKA is 11-3 (+9.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

DAISUKE MATSUZAKA vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
MATSUZAKA is 2-1 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 5.88 and a WHIP of 1.692.
His team's record is 4-1 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)

ERVIN SANTANA vs. BOSTON since 1997
SANTANA is 2-2 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.73 and a WHIP of 1.256.
His team's record is 5-4 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-2. (+3.6 units)


OAKLAND (9 - 11) at SEATTLE (8 - 13)

TREVOR CAHILL (R) vs. JASON VARGAS (L)

Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 29-46 (-24.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less since 1997.
OAKLAND is 50-70 (-23.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
CAHILL is 23-11 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CAHILL is 15-7 (+9.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CAHILL is 22-10 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 70-113 (-40.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 21-44 (-22.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 67-107 (-39.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-41 (-20.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-1 (+3.7 Units) against OAKLAND this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

TREVOR CAHILL vs. SEATTLE since 1997
CAHILL is 1-3 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 2.80 and a WHIP of 1.330.
His team's record is 2-4 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-3. (-0.6 units)

JASON VARGAS vs. OAKLAND since 1997
VARGAS is 1-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.176.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)
 

AC2

Senior Member
#7
NL Fade Alert
By Bruce Marshall

With 162 games in the Major League Baseball season, there are lots of opportunities for teams to go back and forth, alternating winning and losing streaks. Over the years, however, once the campaign has a few weeks under its belt, trends can become more pronounced...especially for teams in trouble. By this point, some of the novelty of the early surprise package sides has worn off, with those squads often coming back to earth after quick starts. Injuries can begin to pile up. And often the result is an easier-to-identify group of teams to "fade" each week.

After three weeks of the 2011 season, we're beginning to get a better idea of teams and pitchers to look against until further notice. Following is a brief National League "fade" alert as we get ready to enter the final week of April. All stat numbers through games of April 21.

Pittsburgh Pirates...Yes, yes, we know the Pirates have been a bit of a surprise, winning their first three road series and already posting nearly half as many wins away from home (7) as they did the entire 2010 campaign (17!). But at the moment the Bucs look to be prime candidates to hit an extended slump after suffering a three-game sweep at Florida when outscored 21-5 by the Marlins. The Bucs are striking out at a Gorman Thomas-like clip, with an MLB-high 169 Ks thus far, and rank 23rd in BA (.238) and 28th in runs scored (67). But it's the meltdown of the staff that everyone has been waiting for, and there's evidence it has begun after the staff took a shellacking in Florida. The likes of Charlie Morton, James McDonald, and Paul Maholm are beginning to dhow signs of buckling after encouraging early outings, and remember that this staff posted a 5.60 ERA last season. TRENDS TO NOTE:Despite getting swept at Florida, the Bucs are still +510 on the road this season, although we suspect that number will begin to fall as it did earlier this week in Miami. Pittsburgh is also just 1-5 at home (-386). Starting pitchers Maholm (-400) and McDonald (-408) rank among the bottom money pitchers in the bigs.

New York Mets...At least the Mets temporarily stopped the bleeding in Thursday's win vs. Houston, salvaging the final game of a midweek set vs. the low-flying Astros. Previously, the Mets had lost 7 straight at Citi Field, evoking memories of their 1962 predecessors. But at 6-13, New York still has the worst record in baseball. The hope in Queens is that the return of OF Jason Bay to the lineup will be a harbinger of things to come; Bay, out of action since last July, participated in his first game in almost nine months on Thursday. With no help likely to be on its way from Class AAA anytime soon, new manager Terry Collins (who was ejected in Thursday's win over Houston) doesn't have many options other than Bay to inject some life into his sluggish lineup. The headaches have been numerous, from terrible relief pitching to Johan Santana's ongoing absence to Carlos Beltran's slow start, not to mention blowing two-run leads in four straight losses earlier this week to the Rockies. The staff ERA of 4.95 ranks 28th in MLB. And there are new questions about what Bud Selig might do about Fred Wilpon's shaky ownership situation after MLB's recent takeover of the Dodgers. If only the Mets could blame Bernie Madoff for their personnel blunders over the past five years. TRENDS TO NOTE: Although the Mets have more or less held their own on the road, winning 4 of 9 and +81 in the process, they've been murder on their backers at home, dropping 8 of 10 and a staggering -820 at Citi Field. The bullpen woes have contributed to a 13-5 "over" mark as well. Starters Jon Niese (-229), R.A. Dickey (-304), and Mike Pelfrey (-400) have been poisonous in the early going.

Atlanta Braves...Many NL East observers warned that manager Fredi Gonzalez was no John McGraw, or, more appropriately, a Bobby Cox. Fredi's inability to handle the pitching staff marked his tenure as Marlins manager, and his decision-making is under scrutiny again with the Braves, especially after deciding to pitch to the red-hot Dodger Matt Kemp with an empty base to fill in the 12th inning on Sunday at Chavez Ravine. Kemp turned on the pitch from reliever Cristhian Martinez to give the Blue a 5-3 win. But the Braves' issues go deeper, with run production on the wane as both OF Jason Heyward and 2B Dan Uggla toil beneath the Mendoza Line, and rookie 1B Freddie Freeman struggles. Like a year ago, when the team had to go on the market and rent Derrek Lee to add some pop to the offense, Braves' GM Frank Wren might be looking to do the same in the near future of the offense (which ranks 27th in both BA and runs scored) continues to sputter. TRENDS TO NOTE: Among NL teams, only the Mets have offered worse money value than Atlanta, now -648 this season. Starters Tommy Hanson (-320) and Derek Lowe (-149) have not been providing much value.

San Diego Padres...Many NL observers worried that the Padre offense was not going to be able to survive the departure of 1B Adrian Gonzalez, who moved to the Red Sox in the offseason. So far, they might be right, as the popgun Padre attack continues to misfire; San Diego ranks last or nearly last in MLB in several relevant offensive categories (30th in BA, 30th in shutouts suffered with five, 29th in runs scored and OPS, 25th in homers). Meanwhile, parts of the staff are also laboring, especially last year's revelation Mat Latos, who has now lost a team record (shared with Andy Benes) eight starts in a row after Thursday's setback vs. the Phillies. If not for starter Aaron Harang, who became the NL's first 4-game winner this season when beating the Cubs on Wednesday, we shudder to think where the Padres might be right now. TRENDS TO NOTE: No home edge yet for San Diego, now 3-6 with a -313 money mark at Petco Park. Starting pitchers Latos (-360) and Dustin Mosely (-400) have been principle money burners.

NL PITCHERS IN TROUBLE (W-L record and money mark included): Chris Carpenter, St. Louis (0-4, -$637); Daniel Hudson, Arizona (0-4, -413); Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh (0-4, -408); Mike Pelfrey, NY Mets (0-4, -400); Dustin Moseley, San Diego (0-4, -400); James McDonald, Pittsburgh (0-4, -400); Mat Latos, San Diego (0-3, -360); Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado (0-2, -344); Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco (0-3, -344); Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs (1-3, -334); Tommy Hanson, Atlanta (1-3, -320); R.A. Dickey, NY Mets (1-3, -304); Travis Wood, Cincinnati (1-3, -299); Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs (1-3, -265); Jake Westbrook, St. Louis (1-3, -254); Jon Niese, NY Mets (1-3, -229); Chris Narveson, Milwaukee (1-3, -225); J.A. Happ, Houston (1-3, -204); James Russell, Chicago Cubs (0-2, -200).
 

AC2

Senior Member
#8
AL Fade Alert
By Bruce Marshall


With 162 games in the Major League Baseball season, there are lots of opportunities for teams to go back and forth, alternating winning and losing streaks. Over the years, however, once the campaign has a few weeks under its belt, trends can become more pronounced...especially for teams in trouble. By this point, some of the novelty of the early surprise package sides has worn off, with those squads often coming back to earth after quick starts. Injuries can begin to pile up. And often the result is an easier-to-identify group of teams to “fade” each week.

After three weeks of the 2011 season, we’re beginning to get a better idea of teams and pitchers to look against until further notice. Following is a brief American League “fade” alert as we get ready to enter the final week of April. All stat numbers through games of April 22.

Seattle Mariners... Back-to-back shutouts over the punchless A’s have temporarily buoyed the spirits of the Mariners. And young flamethrower Michael Pineda has been one of the early pitching surprises of the league. But remember that the M’s had dropped five in a row at Safeco Field before the A’s visited on Thursday night, and the anemic Seattle offense still ranks near the bottom of MLB stats in a number of important categories, including 28th in BA (.224), 27th in homers (11), and 24th in runs scored (3.57 pg). Meanwhile, the bullpen ERA of 4.95 ranks 27th in the league, as manager Eric Wedge waits for closer David Aardsma to return from the disabled list. TRENDS TO NOTE: Seattle has been a pretty serious money-burner this season, at -528 even after a couple of wins over Oakland the past few days. On the run line they’re even less appealing at -786, the worst mark in the majors. Starters Erik Bedard (-433), Doug Fister (-204), and Jason Vargas (-172) have been big losers in the early going.

Chicago White Sox... Two years ago, there was word in June that GM Kenny Williams was about to blow up the Chisox roster unless manager Ozzie Guillen could whip the Pale Hose into contention. Which Guillen did, sparing a midseason housecleaning. Now, two years later, they’re starting to say the same things on the South Side, with the White Sox struggling in a current 1-8 run that has been marked by a complete meltdown of the bullpen that has normally talkative pitching coach Don Cooper strangely without words. And no wonder, since, incredibly, the White Sox have blown 6 of 7 save opportunities, with Matt Thornton blowing all four of his chances, as Ozzie’s closer-by-committee approach has been a dismal failure in the wake of Bobby Jenks’ offseasson departure to Boston. Young Sergio Santos looks to be Ozzie’s next alternative in his assembly line of would-be closers...stay tuned. TRENDS TO NOTE: The Pale Hose have been serious money-burners thus far, ranking 28th in the league at -569. And of all Major League starting pitchers, only St. Louis’ Chris Carpenter has been offering worse value than the Chicago’s John Danks (-473).

Baltimore Orioles... So much for that quick break from the gate for the O’s, who seemed to be picking up where they left off last season for Buck Showalter, under whom Baltimore won 34 of 57 games down the stretch last season. But many AL East observers noted that the Orioles played well under no pressure late last season, and that once AL hitters got a new look at Showalter’s young staff. the O’s could flounder. Which is exactly what has happened the past two weeks, as Baltimore has lost 9 of 11 after a 6-1 start, with the offense now near the bottom of the AL with a .235 BA, and scoring more than five runs only twice. The lineup is dotted with aging sorts such as Vlady Guerrero and Derrek Lee, and there isn’t much help coming from the minors anytime soon. Meanwhile, the pitching staff, even earlier than expected, has started to buckle. Showalter, who needs all the help he can get with his pitchers, hopes to have Brian Matusz back soon from a strained left intercostal muscle. TRENDS TO NOTE: The O’s have been absorbing some lopsided beatings, which partially explains their -502 mark against the run line. Starters Brad Bergesen (-200) and Jeremy Guthrie (-174) have not offered much value, especially of late.

Minnesota Twins... This looks as if it is going to be a difficult season for the Twins. Already, injuries are taking their toll, with Joe Mauer the latest to go on the DL with bilateral leg weakness and a viral infection (that doesn’t sound too good, but it shouldn’t keep him out too much longer). Before he was shelved, Mauer was batting only .235, while other expected power sources Justin Morneau (.208) and Jim Thome (.191) have struggled as well. Mourneau, coming back from missing almost half of last season with a concussion, has also missed recent action due to a strained neck that has required an injection to kill the pain, plus the same viral inflection that hit Mauer. LF Delmon Young has also been scratched from a few recent games due to a rib injury. No wonder the Twins rank only 24th in MLB batting (.233) and an even poorer 29th in run scored (3.0 pg). Meanwhile, starting pitcher Francisco Liriano seems destined for a return to the bullpen, where Joe Nathan, back from season-ending surgery a year ago, has already relinquished closer duties to Matt Capps. All of this going wrong in the Twin Cities, and we’re not out of April yet. TRENDS TO NOTE: The Twins’ lack of offense is reflected in a 14-5 “under” mark to date. Starters Liriano (-283), Scott Baker (-202), Carl Pavano (-200), and Nick Blackburn (1-93) have all offered poor value thus far.

AL PITCHERS IN TROUBLE (W-L record and money mark included): Jon Danks, Chicago White Sox (0-4. -$468); Erik Bedard, Seattle (0-4, -433); Clay Buccholz, Boston (1-3., -359); Jeff Francis, Kansas City (1-3, -300); Francisco Liriano, Minnesota (1-3, -283); Jon Lester, Boston (2-3, -260); Ervin Santana, LA Angels (1-3, -257); Ricky Romero, Toronto (1-3, -227); Brandon McCarthy, Oakland (1-3, -216); Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston (1-2, -212); Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay (1-3, -211); Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay (1-3, -211); Dog Fister, Seattle (1-3, -204); Scott Baker, Minnesota (1-3, -2-2); Carl Pavano, Minnesota (1-3, -200); Brad Bergesen, Baltimore (1-3, -200); Colby Lewis, Texas (1-2, -193); Nick Blackburn, Minnesota (1-3, -193); Brad Penny, Detroit (1-3, -175
 

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