BIO:
Rich Green is the editor of http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com , a free sports handicapping and information service. He has been a top ranked handicapper for over 40 years. He specializes in Football, Basketball and Baseball, all the major sports, and has won numerous contests in each.
2019 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends
Here is a look before the 2019 College Football season starts on lined teams and some basic ATS trends:
Air Force -- 11-2 ATS as Dogs >=7 pts, 0-10 ATS vs Wyoming
Akron -- New Head Coach, 3-0 ATS at Miami-Ohio, 1-9 ATS as Favorites >10 pts
Alabama -- 18-2 ATS in the first of back-to-back Road games, 1-6 ATS after playing Texas A&M
Appalachian State -- 6-1 ATS after scoring at least 35 points, 0-5 ATS off a shutout win
Arizona -- 5-1 ATS as Road Dogs >=15 pts, 2-8 ATS after scoring <10.5 pts
Arizona State -- 9-3 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-9 ATS on weekdays
Arkansas -- 6-0 ATS vs Ole Miss, 0-5 ATS after allowing 10 or less pts
Arkansas State -- 9-0 ATS vs UL-Monroe, 1-5 ATS after playing Troy
Army -- 6-0 ATS vs better than average foes, 0-6 ATS before playing Navy
Auburn -- 4-0 ATS vs Ole Miss, 1-5 ATS before playing Florida
Ball State -- 5-1 ATS as Road Favs, 0-7 ATS vs Northern Illinois
Baylor -- 7-0 ATS versus Kansas, 0-7 ATS at Home vs Texas Tech
Boise State -- 6-1 ATS vs San Jose St, 0-5 ATS before playing Byu
Here is a look before the 2019 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:
Arizona -- New Head Coach, 4-0 vs Seattle, 10-2 ATS as non-Division Home Dogs >3 pts, 1-7 ATS on Mondays, 0-4 ATS vs Rams
Atlanta -- 6-0 ATS on Thursday Home games, 8-0 ATS as Favorites off MNF, 0-6 ATS before playing on Thursday, 0-4 ATS after playing Tampa Bay
Baltimore -- 5-0 ATS as Division Dogs >3 pts, 6-0 ATS before playing Cleveland, 0-6 ATS as Thursday Dogs, 1-6 ATS vs the AFC South
Buffalo -- 5-1 ATS before playing Miami, 5-0 ATS vs Denver, 0-5 ATS at Home vs New England, 4-9 ATS as Home Dogs
Carolina -- 10-5 ATS as Road Dogs, 8-1 ATS before playing on Thursday, 0-4 ATS at Atlanta, 2-6 ATS before playing Tampa Bay
Chargers -- 14-1 ATS Home vs AFC South, 6-0 ATS vs Houston, 0-10 ATS vs rivals with Rest, 0-5 ATS before Bye Week
Chicago -- 18-4 ATS before playing Detroit, 10-2 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-4 ATS vs New Orleans, 2-10 ATS vs NFC East
Cincinnati -- New Head Coach, 9-1 ATS at AFC West, 8-0 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 0-4 ATS with Rest, 1-8 ATS at the AFC East
Cleveland -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS vs NFC, 3-0 ATS vs Tennessee, 0-5 ATS at Home vs Cincinnati, 0-6 ATS off Thursday play
Dallas -- 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs, 4-0 ATS vs Giants, 0-4 ATS Minnesota, 1-7 ATS after playing Giants
Denver -- New Head Coach, 10-2 ATS on Thursdays, 8-0 ATS as Division Road Favorites >3 pts, 0-5 vs Buffalo, 1-7 ATS at AFC East
Detroit -- 4-0 ATS vs Washington, 8-0 ATS versus .333 or less rivals, 0-11 ATS as Thursday Dogs, 2-9 ATS before playing Green Bay
Green Bay -- New Head Coach, 9-1 ATS after playing Chicago, 4-0 ATS off Monday play, 0-6 ATS as two TD Favs or >, 1-11 ATS as Conf Dogs with Revenge
Houston -- 5-0 ATS at Home vs Tennessee, 4-0 ATS at the AFC North, 0-6 ATS vs Chargers, 2-7 ATS after playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis -- 7-0 ATS in first of back-to-back Home games, 10-1 ATS as Favorites after allowing at least 35 pts, 2-8 ATS before playing Jacksonville, 1-6 ATS after scoring at least 35 pts
Jacksonville -- 7-0 ATS vs AFC North, 8-2 ATS after playing Tennessee, 1-8 ATS vs the AFC West, 1-11 ATS before playing Indianapolis
Kansas City -- 7-0 ATS away with Revenge, 5-1 ATS vs Denver, 1-9 ATS off SU Monday loss, 2-7 ATS at Indianapolis
Miami -- New Head Coach, 8-1 ATS at Indianapolis, 5-1 ATS as Home Favs, 2-10 ATS off MNF, 0-8 ATS vs Baltimore
Minnesota -- 10-0 ATS before Bye Week, 16-5 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-11 ATS as Road Favorites as beaten Favorites, 0-8 ATS away on Mondays
New England -- 13-2 ATS after playing Miami, 10-0 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit SU loss, 7-0 ATS at Home vs Miami, 0-9 ATS as Division Road Favorites >=8 pts
New Orleans -- 9-0 ATS as Division Dogs >= 3 pts, 4-0 ATS before Monday play, 0-5 ATS at Rams, 1-6 ATS as Division Road Favs >3 pts
NY Giants -- 10-0 ATS off Thursday games, 6-0 ATS Home as beaten Favorites, 0-7 ATS Home vs NFC West, 1-7 ATS after allowing >= 35pts
2019 NFL AND NCAA Football Wagering Tips
Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as John Holliday, Paul Johnson, Bill Belichick and anyone named Harbaugh among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years.
Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games. The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team.
If Seattle for example, early in the season, plays Arizona this week and San Francisco in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is against say Detroit, a lesser out of Division team, be careful! Seattle will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early against Detroit, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.
Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Seattle the following week against San Francisco because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!
Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ½ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.
Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game. I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.
NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years. Every week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction.
Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2019 Football Wagering Season! Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners!
--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com
Rich Green is the editor of http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com , a free sports handicapping and information service. He has been a top ranked handicapper for over 40 years. He specializes in Football, Basketball and Baseball, all the major sports, and has won numerous contests in each.
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2019 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends
Here is a look before the 2019 College Football season starts on lined teams and some basic ATS trends:
Air Force -- 11-2 ATS as Dogs >=7 pts, 0-10 ATS vs Wyoming
Akron -- New Head Coach, 3-0 ATS at Miami-Ohio, 1-9 ATS as Favorites >10 pts
Alabama -- 18-2 ATS in the first of back-to-back Road games, 1-6 ATS after playing Texas A&M
Appalachian State -- 6-1 ATS after scoring at least 35 points, 0-5 ATS off a shutout win
Arizona -- 5-1 ATS as Road Dogs >=15 pts, 2-8 ATS after scoring <10.5 pts
Arizona State -- 9-3 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-9 ATS on weekdays
Arkansas -- 6-0 ATS vs Ole Miss, 0-5 ATS after allowing 10 or less pts
Arkansas State -- 9-0 ATS vs UL-Monroe, 1-5 ATS after playing Troy
Army -- 6-0 ATS vs better than average foes, 0-6 ATS before playing Navy
Auburn -- 4-0 ATS vs Ole Miss, 1-5 ATS before playing Florida
Ball State -- 5-1 ATS as Road Favs, 0-7 ATS vs Northern Illinois
Baylor -- 7-0 ATS versus Kansas, 0-7 ATS at Home vs Texas Tech
Boise State -- 6-1 ATS vs San Jose St, 0-5 ATS before playing Byu
Here is a look before the 2019 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:
Arizona -- New Head Coach, 4-0 vs Seattle, 10-2 ATS as non-Division Home Dogs >3 pts, 1-7 ATS on Mondays, 0-4 ATS vs Rams
Atlanta -- 6-0 ATS on Thursday Home games, 8-0 ATS as Favorites off MNF, 0-6 ATS before playing on Thursday, 0-4 ATS after playing Tampa Bay
Baltimore -- 5-0 ATS as Division Dogs >3 pts, 6-0 ATS before playing Cleveland, 0-6 ATS as Thursday Dogs, 1-6 ATS vs the AFC South
Buffalo -- 5-1 ATS before playing Miami, 5-0 ATS vs Denver, 0-5 ATS at Home vs New England, 4-9 ATS as Home Dogs
Carolina -- 10-5 ATS as Road Dogs, 8-1 ATS before playing on Thursday, 0-4 ATS at Atlanta, 2-6 ATS before playing Tampa Bay
Chargers -- 14-1 ATS Home vs AFC South, 6-0 ATS vs Houston, 0-10 ATS vs rivals with Rest, 0-5 ATS before Bye Week
Chicago -- 18-4 ATS before playing Detroit, 10-2 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-4 ATS vs New Orleans, 2-10 ATS vs NFC East
Cincinnati -- New Head Coach, 9-1 ATS at AFC West, 8-0 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 0-4 ATS with Rest, 1-8 ATS at the AFC East
Cleveland -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS vs NFC, 3-0 ATS vs Tennessee, 0-5 ATS at Home vs Cincinnati, 0-6 ATS off Thursday play
Dallas -- 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs, 4-0 ATS vs Giants, 0-4 ATS Minnesota, 1-7 ATS after playing Giants
Denver -- New Head Coach, 10-2 ATS on Thursdays, 8-0 ATS as Division Road Favorites >3 pts, 0-5 vs Buffalo, 1-7 ATS at AFC East
Detroit -- 4-0 ATS vs Washington, 8-0 ATS versus .333 or less rivals, 0-11 ATS as Thursday Dogs, 2-9 ATS before playing Green Bay
Green Bay -- New Head Coach, 9-1 ATS after playing Chicago, 4-0 ATS off Monday play, 0-6 ATS as two TD Favs or >, 1-11 ATS as Conf Dogs with Revenge
Houston -- 5-0 ATS at Home vs Tennessee, 4-0 ATS at the AFC North, 0-6 ATS vs Chargers, 2-7 ATS after playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis -- 7-0 ATS in first of back-to-back Home games, 10-1 ATS as Favorites after allowing at least 35 pts, 2-8 ATS before playing Jacksonville, 1-6 ATS after scoring at least 35 pts
Jacksonville -- 7-0 ATS vs AFC North, 8-2 ATS after playing Tennessee, 1-8 ATS vs the AFC West, 1-11 ATS before playing Indianapolis
Kansas City -- 7-0 ATS away with Revenge, 5-1 ATS vs Denver, 1-9 ATS off SU Monday loss, 2-7 ATS at Indianapolis
Miami -- New Head Coach, 8-1 ATS at Indianapolis, 5-1 ATS as Home Favs, 2-10 ATS off MNF, 0-8 ATS vs Baltimore
Minnesota -- 10-0 ATS before Bye Week, 16-5 ATS as Home Dogs, 0-11 ATS as Road Favorites as beaten Favorites, 0-8 ATS away on Mondays
New England -- 13-2 ATS after playing Miami, 10-0 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit SU loss, 7-0 ATS at Home vs Miami, 0-9 ATS as Division Road Favorites >=8 pts
New Orleans -- 9-0 ATS as Division Dogs >= 3 pts, 4-0 ATS before Monday play, 0-5 ATS at Rams, 1-6 ATS as Division Road Favs >3 pts
NY Giants -- 10-0 ATS off Thursday games, 6-0 ATS Home as beaten Favorites, 0-7 ATS Home vs NFC West, 1-7 ATS after allowing >= 35pts
2019 NFL AND NCAA Football Wagering Tips
Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as John Holliday, Paul Johnson, Bill Belichick and anyone named Harbaugh among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years.
Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games. The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team.
If Seattle for example, early in the season, plays Arizona this week and San Francisco in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is against say Detroit, a lesser out of Division team, be careful! Seattle will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early against Detroit, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.
Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Seattle the following week against San Francisco because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!
Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ½ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.
Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game. I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.
NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years. Every week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction.
Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2019 Football Wagering Season! Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners!
--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com