Baltimore Orioles Under 74 Regular Season Wins - This team is a mess. They lose closer BJ Ryan and drunken punchout artist Sidney Ponson, On paper that does not look too horrible. Infighting on this team though has caused dissension and the Orioles just wont hit this year. Cory Patterson, Kevin Millar and the overachieving Jay Gibbons make up a very suspect outfield one of the weaker ones in the majors. Jeff Conine at 1B doesn’t scare anyone these days. The starting staff is a hodgepodge of prospects and suspects who Leo Mazzone will try and whip into shape. The only arms I like there are Daniel Cabrera, who is either brilliant or incredibly wild, and Kris Benson, who wore out his welcome at Shea. In Camden his mistakes wont be forgiven so easily. The 74 wins last year will be tough to match as I project this team for a 68-72 win season.
Boston Red Sox Under 92 Regular Season Wins – The Red Sox picked up Josh Beckett, and Mike Lowell as key acquisitions. Unfortunately, the infield of Kevin Youklis, Mark Loretta and Alex Gonzalez is quite questionable defensively. The loss of Renteria will hurt the defense more than most people realize, however, Co Co Crisp should fill in nicely for the loss of Damon. Trot Nixon and Willy Mo Pena will platoon in RF and try and get some runners home. Manny Ramirez may be traded if the Sox are out of it come August so the win total may stay way under if that happens. Last year the Red Sox won 95 Games but had a lot of luck. I doubt that the 2006 back of the rotation starters of Wells, Wakefield and Clement can win 40 games combined. This year I expect them to win 85-89 games.
New York Yankees Under 97½ Regular Season Wins - The Yankees have gotten old. Sure they added Johnny Damon but they put their head in the sand with their starting pitching. Right now the Yankees have no healthy 5th starter in Carl Pavano or Jaret Wright and the 3rd and 4th positions are shaky at best with Chien Ming Wang and Shawn Chacon. The offense as usual will be good, but how many games can you afford to play that end up 9-6 or 8-7? The bullpen should be better with the additions of lefty killer Mike Myers, former closers Octavio Dotel and Kyle Farnsworth and even Ron Villone. The question is how much can Joe Torre use these situational guys in close games? Last year they won 95 games, Damon won’t be worth the 2.5 wins improvement. I expect the Yankees to win 91-95 games.
BEST BET -
Tampa Bay Devil Rays Over 67½ Regular Season Wins - The Devil Rays are a real wild card in this division. They have some of the best young talent and I expect them to win a lot of games. These guys can hit! The lineup of Huff, Cantu, Gomes, Baldelli, Crawford, Gathright and Burroughs (if he plays) will score some runs. Delmon Young and BJ Upton should join the team sometime this season and that will only increase their power potential. They will be dogs early on and we may seem some good prices on them. The starting staff is young but guys like Kazmir, Waechter and McClung should win 40+ games combined. Last year the Rays had 40 home wins, basically .500 and a total of 67 wins for the season. The addition of a year’s experience and maturity should help them win 72-76 games.
Toronto Blue Jays Over 87 Regular Season Wins – The Blue Jays spent a ton of money on free agents. This team added two solid hitters in Lyle Overbay, who gets on base, and Troy Glaus who can drive runs home. Additionally the additions of BJ Ryan as closer, AJ Burnett and a healthy Roy Halladay should be worth 10 wins alone. Gustavo Chacin is a top rated rookie who I expect to win 15 games and Ted Lilly needs to work the kinks out. The Outfield of Frank Catalanotto, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios can hit. The bigger question for this team is will Wells wear down tracking down the balls that his outfield partners can’t reach. Last year’s 80 win season can be attributed to injuries and poor bullpen work by the since departed closer Miguel Batista. The Blue Jays should challenge for the division and win 89-93 games.
Boston Red Sox Under 92 Regular Season Wins – The Red Sox picked up Josh Beckett, and Mike Lowell as key acquisitions. Unfortunately, the infield of Kevin Youklis, Mark Loretta and Alex Gonzalez is quite questionable defensively. The loss of Renteria will hurt the defense more than most people realize, however, Co Co Crisp should fill in nicely for the loss of Damon. Trot Nixon and Willy Mo Pena will platoon in RF and try and get some runners home. Manny Ramirez may be traded if the Sox are out of it come August so the win total may stay way under if that happens. Last year the Red Sox won 95 Games but had a lot of luck. I doubt that the 2006 back of the rotation starters of Wells, Wakefield and Clement can win 40 games combined. This year I expect them to win 85-89 games.
New York Yankees Under 97½ Regular Season Wins - The Yankees have gotten old. Sure they added Johnny Damon but they put their head in the sand with their starting pitching. Right now the Yankees have no healthy 5th starter in Carl Pavano or Jaret Wright and the 3rd and 4th positions are shaky at best with Chien Ming Wang and Shawn Chacon. The offense as usual will be good, but how many games can you afford to play that end up 9-6 or 8-7? The bullpen should be better with the additions of lefty killer Mike Myers, former closers Octavio Dotel and Kyle Farnsworth and even Ron Villone. The question is how much can Joe Torre use these situational guys in close games? Last year they won 95 games, Damon won’t be worth the 2.5 wins improvement. I expect the Yankees to win 91-95 games.
BEST BET -
Tampa Bay Devil Rays Over 67½ Regular Season Wins - The Devil Rays are a real wild card in this division. They have some of the best young talent and I expect them to win a lot of games. These guys can hit! The lineup of Huff, Cantu, Gomes, Baldelli, Crawford, Gathright and Burroughs (if he plays) will score some runs. Delmon Young and BJ Upton should join the team sometime this season and that will only increase their power potential. They will be dogs early on and we may seem some good prices on them. The starting staff is young but guys like Kazmir, Waechter and McClung should win 40+ games combined. Last year the Rays had 40 home wins, basically .500 and a total of 67 wins for the season. The addition of a year’s experience and maturity should help them win 72-76 games.
Toronto Blue Jays Over 87 Regular Season Wins – The Blue Jays spent a ton of money on free agents. This team added two solid hitters in Lyle Overbay, who gets on base, and Troy Glaus who can drive runs home. Additionally the additions of BJ Ryan as closer, AJ Burnett and a healthy Roy Halladay should be worth 10 wins alone. Gustavo Chacin is a top rated rookie who I expect to win 15 games and Ted Lilly needs to work the kinks out. The Outfield of Frank Catalanotto, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios can hit. The bigger question for this team is will Wells wear down tracking down the balls that his outfield partners can’t reach. Last year’s 80 win season can be attributed to injuries and poor bullpen work by the since departed closer Miguel Batista. The Blue Jays should challenge for the division and win 89-93 games.
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